498
FXUS64 KOUN 040801
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main weather stories today will be thunderstorms with potential
to impact outdoor holiday events and the continuation of dangerous
heat across much of the area.

Starting with the heat, heat indices are expected to once again
reach 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon across all but northwest
Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. A heat advisory is in effect for
these areas and those with outdoor plans this afternoon are
reminded to stay hydrated and take breaks from the direct sun when
possible.

The aforementioned cold front will be the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development, as early as 2 pm but most likely between 4
to 11 pm. Most of the CAMs suggest that development will occur first
across west-central into north-central Oklahoma and progress
southward through the evening, likely impacting July 4th
celebrations and fireworks displays across portions of southwest
into central Oklahoma. Please see our graphics for more detailed
timing info.

Given an environment characterized by PWATs at or above 2" and DCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/KG, the main hazard with these storms will be strong
to severe downburst winds. Lightning will also of course be a
major concern for outdoor events this afternoon and evening. In
addition to damaging winds, hail up to the size of golfballs will
also be possible with the stronger storms. Finally, given high
PWAT values storms will have the potential for heavy rainfall.

Models suggest that additional storms could develop later tonight,
mainly after midnight, across central and southern Oklahoma as the
low-level jet and warm advection increases to the north of the
surface boundary. This activity would also pose a risk for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding, but storm coverage is a bit more
uncertain with this round.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and storms will linger into Friday morning across central
into southern portions of the area, with activity shifting
southward through the day as the front continues its progress into
Texas. Much welcome relief from the triple digit temperatures is
expected behind the front on Friday, with highs only in the upper
80s to lower 90s areawide, along with a much drier airmass.

Near average temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend,
with below average temperatures expected early next week behind
another cold front which will move across the area Sunday and Sunday
night. This front will bring another chance for showers and storms
to much of the area. The synoptic pattern begins to somewhat
resemble the conceptual model for a predecessor rainfall event
Sunday into Monday as the right entrance region of the upper jet is
positioned over the area and moisture associated with Hurricane
Beryl pushes northward, potentially interacting with the boundary.
These synoptic details could change as we are still several days
out, but will have to watch this scenario for the potential for
heavy rainfall and flooding. WPC has placed portions of our area
under a "slight" risk for excessive rainfall during this period.
Additional rainfall chances are possible through the middle of
next week as the front washes out and tropical moisture lingers
nearby.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

KDUA AWOS is reporting limited visibility and low ceiling. Judging
by satellite and Durant area tower cameras, this does not appear
to be representative of the weather conditions in the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across central
Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and evening from west to east along a
slowly- moving cold front. Some will have severe wind gusts.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms.
Gusty north winds will arrive during the afternoon north of the
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  71  89  67 /  50  50  10   0
Hobart OK        103  69  90  66 /  30  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  73  91  69 /  10  50  30  10
Gage OK           91  65  87  64 /   0  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     97  65  90  65 /  30  20   0   0
Durant OK        101  74  91  69 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ008-012-013-017>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09