168
FXUS63 KPAH 280705
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
205 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next best rain chances come with the return of scattered
  showers/storms by week`s end.

- Mainly dry and seasonal temperatures ride until next weekend,
  when a more summer-like air mass takes hold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Isolated showers/storms linger across central IL at this
writing. An 18-22 unit H5 short wave vorticity maxima is
helping it survive this time of night. The Hi-Res Convection
Allowing Model ARW picks up on it best amongst the CAMs, and it
maintains this isolated activity but keeps it just to the north
of our CWA doorstep thru daybreak. The SWODY1 similarly draws
their thunder line on our northern CWA border...so we`ll keep a
silent pop there at about 10% (not zero).

That same ARW picks up on a trend of the GFS, which wants to
develop convection into our Pennyrile counties as this sliver of
energy slides southeastward during peak heating today. However,
the ARW keeps these isolated returns just to the east of our
CWA border. We`ll mirror its modeling, while noting the GFS
output with silent but non zero pops.

The aforementioned nuances are more or less played out each day
thru mid week with subtlety; we`ll stay the course and keep
pops silent with a non-zero allowance in the generally moisture
starved environ underneath the periodic ripples of energy
translations within the embedded northwesterlies aloft. The
models depict the primary trof axis making Ohio Valley passage
Thursday, with teleconnected ridging aloft working across our
CWA in its wake. Thereafter what follows for the week`s end is
the beginning return of a more active, daily chance pops pattern
as we head into the weekend. Seasonal temps for the bulk of the
week will warm/moisten slightly as this metamorphosis occurs,
with summer-like mid-upper 80s/mid-upper 60s anticipated by
Days 6-7 of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Visual Flight Rules will prevail this package. FEW-SCT bases
around 5K FT AGL are possible with daytime heating, and
northwesterlies may attain some gustiness during the peak
diurnal hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$