153
FXUS63 KPAH 081123
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
623 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue with
  torrential downpours and lightning being the main concern.
  Isolated stronger storms today may cause a brief downburst.

- Heat indices on Friday and Saturday may exceed 100 degrees
  again, but the duration will be short with improvements by
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Areas of dense fog have developed across portions of KY/IL/MO early
this morning due to a combination of calm winds and lingering low
level moisture from yesterdays rain. Likely will expand a bit more
through sunrise, so went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory
through 8 AM.

A series of 500mb impulses embedded in broad troughing aloft will
continue to produce scattered convection each day through the
weekend. There does seem to be a signal for lower PoPs Thursday and
Friday in the wake of a more pronounced wave moving through later
today into Wednesday (also upper heights appear to rise some on
Friday as a brief bout of upper ridging works in). Chances spike
again on Saturday as another decent shortwave works across the Ohio
Valley.

The primary threat with any storm will be torrential downpours,
lightning, and gusty winds. However, a few stronger storms can`t be
ruled out, particularly today. Wind fields certainly aren`t
impressive, as a we struggle to generate 20-25 kts of 0-6 km shear,
but combined with healthy pwat values of 2" a few downbursts may
occur. These high pwats may also contribute to localized flooding
issues, similar to yesterday, where narrow pockets of 2-3" are
possible. Another uptick in convective strength may occur on
Saturday, but every day poses at least some very low risk of
stronger storms as is typical in the summertime.

Temperatures will be held down with highs primarily remaining in the
mid to upper 80s through Thursday thanks to more abundant cloud
cover and convection around each afternoon. More sunshine and less
activity on Friday should allow us to boost around 90/low 90s again.
This may continue into Saturday, although there`s a chance higher
coverage of convection leads to somewhat lower temps than currently
forecast then. A return of 100 degree heat index values are forecast
on Friday and possibly again on Saturday, thanks to our relentless
high humidity levels (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s).

Models vary some early next week, with some suggesting a
continuation of the broad troughing over the Ohio Valley which would
lead to daily storm chances. Others depict upper heights rising as
ridging tries to amplify early next week which would give way to
decreasing storm chances along with an uptick in temperatures. For
now the NBM`s temps around 90 along with low chance PoPs seem
reasonable for early next week given the uncertainties.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Areas of dense fog and low stratus will gradually lift/burn off
between 13-15z. While a few showers or isolated storms are
possible this morning in southeast Missouri, the primary window
for scattered showers and storms should be this afternoon into
early evening. Some lingering SHRA is possible into the night as
well. SW winds around 4-6 kts today will become calm again
overnight, possibly leading to some more fog development.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ084>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-109>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>017-
     020>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP