455
FXUS65 KPUB 281727
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer with less storm coverage today, but still a chance for
  one or two severe storms far eastern plains late this
  afternoon and evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Saturday
  through Wednesday.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible both Saturday and
  Sunday afternoon, though mostly across the plains.

- Quieter weather returns near the end of the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Next wave is already evident in satellite/radar loops entering
northwest CO in westerly flow aloft.  This will provide the forcing
for another round of thunderstorms today, though models agree that
coverage should be less than the past few days as some drying works
in around the northern side of the upper high which has been
suppressed to the south.  PWATs continue to drop from around 0.75 to
1.50 early this morning to 0.5 to 1.00 by this afternoon.  However
more sun today should yield better heating and destabilization to
act on residual moisture and trigger another round of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with greatest coverage across northern
areas.  Lee troughing will keep enhanced westerly flow in and near
the mountains (especially lower eastern slopes) which will drive the
dew points down into the 30s to lower 40s.  Inverted V soundings
suggest gusty winds and lightning will be the primary storm risk
with storms over the mountains and most of the plains today, though
there will be sufficient moisture and elevated CAPE for some locally
heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. Storm motions from the west
around 20-25 mph should keep storms moving sufficiently to reduce
any localized flash flood risk.

Far eastern plains could see a better risk for a strong to severe
storm or two, especially across Kiowa and Prowers counties, and
perhaps into the overnight hours a couple or so farther west
depending on moisture return/lift behind the cold front.  Main
period to watch will be the early evening where HREF indicates CAPE
up to 1000 J/kg and deep layer shears up to 40 kts.  Some CAMS are
suggesting a helicity swath with storms over Kiowa county during the
evening, though parameters do look better farther north.  The cold
front will push southward through the plains late tonight into
Saturday morning and could keep some showers and thunderstorms going
past midnight for the eastern counties.

Otherwise expect continued hot temperatures over the region,
especially the southeast plains with warm overnight lows given the
clouds and mixing behind the front. Didn`t stray far from national
model blends. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Saturday - Wednesday: An active pattern is expected to remain in
place for much of the long term period. Messy westerly to
southwesterly flow is still anticipated to prevail through
Wednesday, with shortwaves embedded within the flow passing over the
region. Along with that, richer moisture will remain in place,
especially Saturday and Sunday behind FROPA from late Friday
evening. With the periods of heightened forcing from the waves, and
the moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated each day, with the greatest coverage during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Showers and storms will initially
blossom along the mountains during the early afternoon hours, and
expand across the valleys and plains during the mid to late
afternoon hours. For Saturday and Sunday, strong to severe storms
will be possible given the abundant moisture, instability, and
modest shear in place, with expected hazards from severe storms
being severe wind gusts and large hail. In addition, flash flooding
will remain a concern, particularly Saturday and Sunday, with any
slower moving storms given the moisture over the area. With all of
that said, any precipitation present each day will decrease in
coverage and intensity during the mid to late evening hours as
instability wanes. Looking at temperatures, a stretch of near to
slightly above seasonal values is anticipated. Saturday will be the
coolest day behind the aforementioned cold front from Friday
evening, with slightly below seasonal values across the plains.

Thursday: For the end of the long term period, there are signals of
some quieter weather returning. Flow will start to take on a more
northwesterly component, which ensemble model guidance are in good
agreement on. While forcing may still be present from any shortwaves
within the flow and orographics over the terrain, this flow pattern
would be expected to start to scour out some of the moisture that
has been in place. So with all of that said, showers and
thunderstorm chances and coverage are anticipated to lessen
Thursday, though isolated showers along the mountains will be
possible during the afternoon given diurnal instability and ongoing
orographics. As for temperatures, values will hover around
seasonal values for early July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Gusty northwesterly winds are expected
at all three sites today, with gusts to 25kt at KALS and KCOS, and
gusts to 30kts at KPUB. Showers and weak thunderstorms will be
possible in the vicinity of all three sites, but especially at KCOS
this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds in excess of 45kt will also be
possible at KCOS today, especially between 21Z and 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR