Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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916 FXUS63 KSGF 181703 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions today with southerly wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, especially west of Highway 65. - 15-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 65 today and over west Missouri Wednesday. - Heat and humidity return late this week. - Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the rest of June. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Current water vapor imagery depicts moisture venting out from a tropical disturbance in the Gulf and spreading into the ridging pattern across the east CONUS. The edge of this moisture is barely reaching into our eastern counties as evidenced by a smooth edge of high clouds. Meanwhile, a potent trough is digging over the Rocky Mountains. Synoptic ascent and westerly flow east of the Rockies is forcing strong lee surface cyclogenesis across NE/SD. This is contributing to a sharp surface pressure gradient that is reaching into our CWA. Surface winds have been increasing as a result. Latest obs have Springfield and Joplin gusting up to 20-25 mph at times. Additionally, low-level moisture is quite abundant with some low stratus developing within low dewpoint depressions in the eastern Ozarks. Breezy conditions today, especially west of Highway 65: The aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to increase southerly wind speeds today. By 8-10 AM, sustained winds will increase to 15-20 mph. Gusts will reach into the 20-30 mph range, with higher speeds toward the MO/KS border. NBM gives an area north of I-44 and west of Hwy 65 a 40-60% chance of gusts above 30 mph this afternoon, but only a 10% chance of gusts >35 mph. However, RAP and HRRR soundings seem to support a somewhat greater chance of gusts above 35 mph with momentum transfers capping out at 35 kts, especially out near Joplin. However, wind advisory criteria will still likely not be met. 15-40% chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms today: With the tropical moisture just clipping into our eastern CWA, and positive vorticity advection on the western fringes of the upper-level high still present, today will once again feature 15-40% chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms east of Hwy 65, with the greatest chances across the eastern Ozarks. Given the pattern observed yesterday of thin bands of light to moderate precipitation with isolated embedded thunderstorms, this will likely be the nature of the precipitation again this afternoon. This is supported by SBCAPE values of <750 J/kg out east, according to the HREF, likely due to the more synoptically-forced cloud cover and light rain. Further west, these bands would be much more isolated and cellular in nature-- if they are to form, that is. Currently, only the ARW and NSSL models have light showers reaching the Hwy 65 corridor, while the NAM Nest and HRRR do not depict this. Therefore, generally only 10-15% chances exist for the Springfield area and locations along the Hwy 65 corridor. If storms are to form, lightning will be the main hazards with brief, heavy downpours being a secondary hazard due to 1.75-2" PWATs. With continued cloud cover over the eastern Ozarks, highs there will be in the lower 80s while locations west of Hwy 65 and north of I-44 will reach into the upper 80s. Lows will then continue to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 15-20% chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday: A shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies into ND/MN/CA during the day Wednesday. This will force a surface cold front to sag through the central Plains. The jet stream will stay NW of our area, so the cold front will not make it into our CWA., so highs will make it into the middle to upper 80s. However, the cold front will provide lift for showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. It should be said that our 15-20% chances in extreme SE KS and west MO are more likely due to smoothing of the greater chances out along the front in KS/north MO. So these areas could see no precipitation, but there is a small chance that some remnant showers and thunderstorms make it into the area Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, despite <15% chances elsewhere, CAMs do hint at some isolated showers still possible across our CWA due to the ongoing tropical disturbance. However, confidence in anything breaking out is low as the upper-level high to the east will be reaching its way into our region, meaning subsidence will likely win out. Nevertheless, don`t be surprised if a random pop-up shower and/or thunderstorm develops out of the 15% chance range (along and east of Hwy 65). Then, lows will be in the upper 60s Wednesday night. Heat and humidity return late this week: The upper-level high really starts taking on an elongated shape starting Thursday, building and spreading westward into our area. Increased subsidence and adiabatic warming from this high, as well as somewhat clear skies and low chances for precipitation, highs will begin to climb back into the 90s with lows back into the 70s. The heat looks to peak on Saturday with highs in the middle 90s and lows in the middle 70s. A shortwave trough is then forecast to traverse the northern states Sunday. An associated cold front is forecast to at make it into parts of our CWA. This will bring chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening (15-30% as of now). WPC guidance--in agreement with ensemble means and clusters--has the front stalling across southern MO before quickly lifting back out as a warm front Monday morning. This means relief will not last long. Highs Sunday will still be in the upper 80s, then rise back into the lower and middle 90s Monday and Tuesday. It will be important to continue to practice heat safety the end of this week into the beginning of next week as Heat Indices look to reach back into the 95-100 F range (possibly higher). Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through June: The prolonged warmth does not look to end anytime soon with the CPC continuing to advertise 50-60% chances for above normal temperatures through the end of June. This is due to ensembles and clusters continuing to signal a ridge to develop over the central CONUS. Also during this period, there is a 30-40% chance for above normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A cumulus field of mid-level clouds is currently advancing northward. From 19z-01z, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible (15-20% chances) at BBG and SGF, although most precipitation should stay east of Highway 65. After this time period chances of showers diminish and mid-level cumulus clouds give way to clearer skies. Thus, VFR condtions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Gusty southerly winds of 15-25 knots will begin to diminish after 00z, reaching 5-10 knots by very late tonight/early tomorrow morning as a surface pressure gradient over Missouri weakens. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Kenny