441
FXUS62 KTBW 141855
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary that has been in place for
much of the past week continues to linger across north central
Florida. This feature combined with the deep atmospheric moisture
in place and isentropic ascent continues to produce a steady
stream of scattered showers and storms that are generally
developing across the eastern Gulf and moving eastward across the
region as the low level flow continues to shift westerly with the
sea breeze. This westerly flow regime will generally favor mostly
dry conditions along coastal areas by this evening with rain
chances higher across the interior and towards the eastern
portions of the peninsula but some isolated to scattered activity
will remain possible even closer to the coast at times depending
on the positioning of lingering outflow boundaries. Otherwise,
eventually the drier air will filter in across most of the region
by the overnight hours as the aforementioned frontal boundary
slowly advances southward, though some lingering showers and
storms may remain possible across SWFL as deeper moisture hangs
continues to hang around. In addition, areas of patchy fog will
also be possible across the Nature Coast with several favorable
ingredients in place such as small dewpoint depressions, very
light ENE flow, and moist soil conditions.

With drier air in place for tomorrow, precipitation coverage will
be considerably lower than today as PWATs falls to less than 1.5"
across portions of the central FL peninsula so mainly dry
conditions are expected around the Tampa Bay area. However,
lingering moisture in SWFL and southern interior areas will
support potential for scattered activity tomorrow as well as
northern portions of the forecast area in closer proximity to
upper troughing across the Deep South. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system off the Southeast US coast will continue to strengthen
throughout the day and could even acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics as it does so, which NHC has marked a 50% chance
over the next 7 days. Regardless of development with this feature,
dry air will wrap around the backside of this system and filter
across the region at times which should keep rain chances somewhat
lower into next week, though the upper troughing aloft combined
with daily sea breezes will still favor scattered showers and
storms each day.

By the middle of the week, the aforementioned coastal system
merges with the eastern trough and transitions into a large cut-off
low with much of the Florida peninsula in a cyclonic flow for
much of the week due to a blocking ridge in eastern Canada. Since
a frontal boundary is still expected to meander across the region
mid to late week, there will be enough forcing for ascent to keep
continued shower chances in the forecast as temperatures look to
consistently remain in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Scattered VCTS will move eastward across the region this
afternoon with occasional flight restrictions possible at times
until around 20Z-22Z this evening. Low stratus may then develop
overnight due to abundant low level moisture in place with MVFR
CIGs possible at KLAL/KPIE/KTPA at times. Otherwise, any low
clouds that develop overnight should scatter out by mid morning
on Sunday with VFR conditions generally expected through Sunday
afternoon as drier air filters in. However, some lingering
scattered VCTS will be possible at SWFL terminals on Sunday as
deeper moisture hangs on longer.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Drier air moves across the region tonight as a slow moving frontal
boundary sinks southward. This will favor mostly dry conditions
across central marine zones on Sunday but lingering moisture will
keep isolated to scattered showers and storms across southwest
Florida and portions of the Nature Coast at times. Winds will
generally be from the northeast in the morning hours before
shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops over the next couple
of days with wind speeds 5-10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A frontal boundary will sink slowly southward across the area
tonight into Sunday with drier air bringing lower rain chances
tomorrow, though a few showers and storms will remain possible in
interior areas and southwest Florida. Minimum relative humidity
values continue to remain well above critical levels and given
the wet soil conditions from recent rainfall, the fire danger is
expected to remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  76  90 /  10  10  10  40
FMY  78  92  77  92 /  20  30  10  40
GIF  76  93  75  93 /  30  20  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  73  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  50
SPG  80  91  80  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close