421
FXUS63 KTOP 171715
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1215 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon and evening

- Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday late afternoon and evening

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Diminishing cloud cover and light winds in a moist boundary
layer may give rise to patchy mainly south of I-335 early this
morning. The remainder of the day brings lots of sun with
slightly warmer temperatures on modest low-level warm air
advection.

Models trending toward better chances for convective development
along a weak cold front in the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Modest capping looks to remain in place with a weak upper
ridge building so any activity looks to be fairly isolated. Went
ahead with a mention along the boundary for these periods. Shear
will be weak though MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg could produce brief
severe weather.

Thunderstorm activity could form in northwest Kansas Saturday evening
and impact northwestern local areas into the night, though severe
weather is not anticipated as instability weakens with time. More
concern comes in the late afternoon and likely more into the evening
as a shortwave moves northeast into western Kansas with a dryline
sharpening under it. Differences in capping, dryline location and
convergence along it, and how much early day convection could have
on the environment bring questions of how this potential event will
transpire, but NBM thunderstorm chances will be maintained. Wind
fields in the mid and upper levels aren`t terribly impressive but
CAPE again around 2000 J/kg and at least a moderate nocturnal low-
level jet bring severe weather potential.

Precipitation chances next week are not very clear with multiple
shortwave moves moving through in mainly zonal flow aloft. The
initial wave remains on track to move northeast through the region
Tuesday, with a cold front swinging through in the midday. This may
relegate the greater severe weather potential to the east. A second
shortwave not far behind brings at least small precip chances
Tuesday night, though much will depend on how far south the
effective front will be. Timing of the next wave varies but small
NBM PoPs Thursday seen justified.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Scattered diurnal cumulus expected to lift from 5kft - 7kft
during the afternoon with southerly winds at or just below 10
kts thru 00Z. Cannot rule out shallow patchy fog redeveloping at
KTOP towards sunrise, otherwise focus turns back to the winds
progged to increase from the south around 10 kts aft 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Prieto