038
FXUS64 KTSA 021842
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
142 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of the areas, with
Heat Advisories in effect for a small portion of far northeast OK
and northwest AR. Afternoon heat indices of 105-115F are expected. A
breezy southerly wind will continue through this evening with gusts
of 15-25 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms, or perhaps just
outflow from distant storms, may move into far northeast OK near the
KS border this evening and overnight, but otherwise dry conditions
will prevail. Low temperatures will still be quite mild, generally
in the mid 70s to around 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A boundary will remain mostly stationary in northeast OK or southern
KS Wednesday, allowing for southerly warm/moist advection to
continue. This will maintain the unusually hot airmass in place. Dew
points were increased above the NBM through much of the period.
Another round of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in
effect for Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon or evening, CAMs
indicate fairly large instability but with limited wind shear. There
may be just enough lift along the boundary to generate scattered
thunderstorms. Assuming this does occur, these storms would be cold
pool dominated and the main hazards would be brief heavy rain and
strong gusty winds. Independence Day (Thursday) will feature more of
the same with additional hot and humid weather. By Thursday evening,
however, a cold front will overtake the stalled boundary across
northeast OK. This will likely result in sufficient lift for more
widespread convective initiation. With PWAT values near 2", weak
steering flow, and minimal shear, areas of heavy rain and strong
gusty winds will develop but other severe hazards are unlikely. As
these storms develop a surface cold pool, it will force the
effective frontal boundary south during the evening and overnight
hours. Increased Pops during this period to 40-60%.

For most areas, Friday will be much cooler and drier with highs
falling into the upper 80s with dew points into the 60s. Some
portions of southeast OK, where the front will be slower to clear,
may see a few additional storms during the first half of the day.
Low temperatures will be refreshing Saturday morning, with 60s
expected across the area.

Southerly flow resumes on Saturday with temperatures and humidity
levels climbing again into early next week. However, with a robust
trough across the northern Plains the atmosphere will overall be
cooler and less supportive of extreme heat. Presumably, this should
cap maximum temperatures in the mid 90s. So although it will be
hot, it will feel cooler than our current weather regime.
Additionally, as the upper trough digs into the region we will see
rain chances increase beginning Saturday, but more likely Sunday
to Monday. Increased Pops from the NBM to account for this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. SOuth
winds will continue gusting in the 20-25 knot range into the
early evening, before trending more light and variable tonight and
Wed morning. Expect increase in mid clouds across NE OK very
early Wed morning as weakening showers and thunderstorms track
across southern KS. The may result in low prob of precip at KBVo
as well as a shift to north winds for a time Wed AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  79  99 /  10  20  20  30
FSM   80 101  79  99 /   0  20   0  20
MLC   79  99  78  98 /   0  20   0  20
BVO   75  93  74  97 /  20  30  20  40
FYV   77  97  75  97 /  10  30  10  30
BYV   77  95  73  97 /  10  40  20  40
MKO   78  98  77  97 /  10  20  20  20
MIO   76  93  75  96 /  30  30  30  40
F10   78  98  77  98 /  10  20  10  30
HHW   78  96  78  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>059-
     063>065-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14