Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
251 FXUS65 KABQ 250856 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 256 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The coverage of showers and storms will decrease again today with even warmer temperatures than Monday. Areas from near Albuquerque south to Socorro will warm into the upper 90s and low 100s while folks around Roswell reach 105 degrees. Any storms that do develop today will still be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Another surge of moisture will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday. The threat for flash flooding will increase again, especially around wildfire burn scars. Drier air will attempt to move into the region Friday along with warmer temperatures. Yet another wave of moisture is expected by Saturday and Sunday with increasing coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall. A few storms this week may also become strong with hail and high winds possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A relative down day is expected today as a drier and more stable airmass near the Four Corners slides east/southeast across more of northern and central NM. Rich moisture will remain in place south of the I-40 corridor but greater subsidence with a 595dm H5 high and 700mb temps near 20C will limit convective potential. Any storms that do form will still be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with slow storm motion. A Flash Flood Watch will not be issued today given the relative downtick expected. Max temps will trend a few degrees warmer and a Heat Advisory was added to Chaves County with highs near 105F. Hi-res CAMs shows an area of convection developing along the Caprock region late this afternoon as a weak upper wave slides southeast off the Front Range. There is enough shear and instability to allow a few storms to become strong. The latest SPC Convective Outlook has outlined a `Marginal Risk` area within Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt counties. Storms may persist over parts of eastern NM thru midnight followed by slowly eroding mid level cloud cover. The H5 high will drift east Wednesday in the wake of the upper wave while a more pronounced H7 high center forms over north-central TX. This will allow deeper return flow to develop over eastern NM with east/southeast winds advecting rich moisture into more of NM. PWATs increase to near 1.3" over central NM and near 1.7" over eastern NM. Strong afternoon heating with enhanced surface convergence and lift along the central mt chain will allow numerous slow-moving storms to fire up by early afternoon. This activity will drift into nearby valleys and highlands with torrential rain possible. A Flash Flood Watch will be needed for burn scars and perhaps other surrounding parts of central NM Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The H5 high center will drift south into southern NM and northern Mexico on Thursday as another weak upper level wave slides over the ridge. Rich moisture with above normal PWATs will remain in place over NM. Steering flow will strengthen and become more W/SW to E/NE. Strong afternoon heating with greater shear and instability may lead to greater coverage of storms with hail, strong winds, and locally heavy rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed again for parts of the area. Another downtick is expected Friday as drier air spreads east from AZ while the upper ridge shifts farther east into TX and the lower MS River Valley. PWATs decrease closer to normal for northern and western NM with greater stability over more of the region. A few storms are still possible mainly across the southern high terrain and eastern plains. Extended models are in fairly good agreement forcing a strong, moist backdoor cold front southward into eastern NM Friday night and Saturday. This will set the stage for another period of storms with locally heavy rainfall over the region thru the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Remnant showers and mid level cloud cover will gradually clear thru sunrise. Stronger high pressure building over the region on Tuesday will allow convective coverage to decrease. However, very slow storm motions will lead to locally heavy rainfall with gusty outflow winds from any storms. SHRA/TS will favor the high terrain after 2pm then drift into nearby highlands on outflow boundaries thru sunset. A cluster of storms may also form over southeast CO late Tuesday afternoon then slide south down the TX/NM border with more heavy rainfall Tuesday evening around KTCC and KCVN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days. Daily rounds of showers and storms are expected, with peak coverage and rainfall intensity on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Slow-moving storms with torrential rainfall will elevate the risk for burn scar flash flooding and subsequent debris flows. The wet phase of the summer monsoon is also expected to continue into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 96 66 95 65 / 0 0 30 60 Dulce........................... 92 52 92 53 / 5 10 40 50 Cuba............................ 91 60 91 58 / 10 10 60 70 Gallup.......................... 92 59 92 57 / 20 20 60 60 El Morro........................ 85 60 86 58 / 40 20 80 70 Grants.......................... 92 59 90 57 / 30 20 80 70 Quemado......................... 84 61 88 60 / 50 50 90 70 Magdalena....................... 90 67 91 65 / 50 20 80 70 Datil........................... 85 62 87 61 / 60 30 90 60 Reserve......................... 90 58 94 57 / 70 40 90 60 Glenwood........................ 96 70 98 68 / 70 40 80 50 Chama........................... 84 53 86 51 / 10 10 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 90 68 89 63 / 20 10 70 70 Pecos........................... 92 62 89 59 / 20 20 70 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 54 86 51 / 10 10 70 60 Red River....................... 77 51 76 50 / 20 10 70 60 Angel Fire...................... 83 47 81 48 / 20 10 60 50 Taos............................ 92 58 90 57 / 10 10 60 50 Mora............................ 87 56 85 54 / 20 20 70 50 Espanola........................ 98 65 97 64 / 10 10 60 60 Santa Fe........................ 91 67 91 63 / 20 20 60 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 65 95 63 / 20 10 60 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 72 97 69 / 10 10 60 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 71 98 68 / 10 10 50 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 71 101 68 / 10 10 40 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 72 99 69 / 10 10 50 60 Belen........................... 100 68 101 67 / 10 10 50 70 Bernalillo...................... 100 70 100 68 / 10 10 50 60 Bosque Farms.................... 99 67 100 65 / 10 10 50 60 Corrales........................ 100 70 100 68 / 10 10 50 60 Los Lunas....................... 99 67 101 66 / 10 10 50 60 Placitas........................ 96 70 95 66 / 10 10 50 60 Rio Rancho...................... 100 71 99 68 / 10 10 50 60 Socorro......................... 101 74 102 70 / 30 20 60 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 66 89 62 / 10 10 60 60 Tijeras......................... 96 67 94 64 / 10 10 60 60 Edgewood........................ 95 63 94 61 / 10 10 60 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 60 94 59 / 20 10 60 60 Clines Corners.................. 86 61 88 59 / 20 20 50 60 Mountainair..................... 93 63 93 62 / 20 20 60 70 Gran Quivira.................... 93 63 93 60 / 30 30 70 70 Carrizozo....................... 97 71 96 68 / 30 30 50 70 Ruidoso......................... 89 64 88 61 / 60 20 70 60 Capulin......................... 90 61 88 61 / 10 10 60 40 Raton........................... 94 61 92 61 / 10 10 50 30 Springer........................ 97 61 95 62 / 20 10 60 40 Las Vegas....................... 87 60 87 60 / 30 20 60 60 Clayton......................... 99 67 95 67 / 10 10 20 30 Roy............................. 94 65 92 65 / 20 10 50 50 Conchas......................... 100 69 100 69 / 20 20 30 60 Santa Rosa...................... 97 68 96 68 / 20 20 30 60 Tucumcari....................... 102 68 100 68 / 20 20 10 40 Clovis.......................... 100 69 99 69 / 20 30 20 40 Portales........................ 101 69 100 70 / 20 30 10 40 Fort Sumner..................... 101 71 101 70 / 10 20 20 50 Roswell......................... 105 76 104 74 / 20 20 20 40 Picacho......................... 97 68 97 67 / 50 20 60 50 Elk............................. 94 65 94 63 / 60 20 70 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42