792
FXUS62 KFFC 282353
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Continued chaotic CU field across North and Central GA at this time.
Embedded spotty showers will transitions to spotty thunderstorms
this afternoon with daytime heating. Lift is currently provided by
the slowly moving mid level trough which will continue to move out
of the area through tomorrow (trending forcing downward on it`s
way). Have also trended thunderstorms a little later than previous
forecasts due to the persistent cloud coverage from this morning.
Precipitation accumulations from this will be light, with locally
higher amounts from thunderstorms. PWATs near 2.0" will mean
efficient rain makers, however this morning`s sounding showed
significant dry air above 600 mb. Thunderstorms will likely struggle
to develop significant depth this afternoon due to dry air
entrainment. Water loading in thunderstorms may be enough to develop
gusty outflow which may help to initiate/develop further
thunderstorms.

Conditions tonight could see continued showers through most of the
overnight hours. These will be spotty at best. Tomorrow morning will
be similar to this morning with low clouds and humid conditions.
Thunderstorms may develop once again by the late morning tomorrow,
however reduced dynamic has see a downtrend in PoPs within CAMs.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoints in the mid 70s will mean conditions are steamy. Heat
indices will reach 100 to 104 for all but the higher elevations of
North GA.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Sunday into early Monday, a long-wave upr trough approaching the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will briefly amplify the upr ridge over the
Southern Plains. As this occurs, energy along with a weak frontal
boundary sagging south will slide across the Southeast region
resulting in a fairly good chance for scattered to numerous
showers/storms across the area.

Drier air works into the area Monday and Tuesday as the upr high
starts to stretch and build back to the east. After a brief reprieve
from the humidity, look for it to return by the middle of the week -
just in time for 4th of July. Heat Index values on Sunday could peak
between 100-105F for many locations, with an area of 105+F possible
across parts of east-central and southeast GA.

Thursday (July 4th) and Friday, models showing the area on the east
side of a broad upr high extending from west Texas to just off the
South Carolina coast. More active weather (jet energy) appears to
remain north of the area - across the Central Plains into the Ohio
Valley, however some of this could dip down across GA by the end of
the week. At this point, isolated to scattered diurnally-driven
convection can be expected with warm temps (running 5-10F degrees
above normal).

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Lingering sct SHRA coverage will gradually diminish after 02Z.
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the evening before
lower cigs become more likely after 08-10Z. Initial MVFR cigs are
expected by 07-09Z with IFR cigs likely by 10-12Z. Gradual
improvement will occur after 14-16Z with VFR more likely after
16Z. Sct SHRA/TSRA are again expected with highest coverage likely
after 18Z. Current SE winds of 5-10 kts will become light and more
vrb after 02Z with SW direction shift expected by 09-13Z at
speeds of 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning cigs.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  74  95 /  40  50  30  60
Atlanta         74  92  76  93 /  30  50  40  60
Blairsville     69  85  69  87 /  40  50  40  70
Cartersville    72  92  73  93 /  30  50  40  70
Columbus        75  94  75  94 /  40  50  30  70
Gainesville     73  89  75  93 /  30  50  40  60
Macon           73  95  74  95 /  40  50  30  60
Rome            74  92  74  94 /  30  50  30  70
Peachtree City  72  92  73  94 /  40  50  30  60
Vidalia         74  96  76  96 /  50  60  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...RW