978
FXUS62 KFFC 270552
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
152 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A dry and hot day is ongoing with mid-afternoon temperatures well
into the upper 90s and 100s. Fortunately, dewpoints remain anchored
in the 50s across the majority of the area, preventing any extreme
heat index readings this afternoon. With temperatures running 2-3
degrees above forecast by midday, highs were adjusted slightly
upward for this afternoon, putting record daily high temperatures
within reach at Atlanta and Macon. The vast majority of us will
remain parched again today with only a rogue shower or thunderstorm
possible through this evening given our dry and capped atmosphere.

Some welcome changes are on the way for Thursday, however. A
shortwave currently approaching the Tennessee Valley will shift
eastward by Thursday morning into our area, setting the stage for
much better rain chances than we`ve seen in a while. Moisture will
surge substantially in advance of this feature with PWATs rapidly
increasing from current ~1" to over 2" by tomorrow morning. Some
showers and perhaps diminishing thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Thursday morning with PoPs increasing first across west/northwest
Georgia. Further development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected by early afternoon as heating increases. Additionally,
any MCV feature from earlier convection (as hinted by CAMs) would
also provide further impetus for diurnally enhanced development. For
this reason, high end chance to low end likely PoPs are being
advertised on Thursday afternoon. No substantial severe risk is
anticipated with forecast SBCAPE generally <1500 J/kg and weak lapse
rates.

More widespread cloud cover and convection will hold high
temperatures to much more manageable levels on Thursday. Highs will
be much closer to seasonal norms, generally in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with the 100s fortunately eliminated for the time
being.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

On the heels of a mid lvl shortwave crossing the area (Thursday),
the upr high will quickly attempt to re-assert itself across the
Southern Plains/Southeast region. A return to more typical humidity
values will increase the heat risk through the weekend with heat
indices expected to be in the 105-110F range for much of the area
south/east of I-85 by Sunday. In addition to the heat/humidity, the
chance for storms will increase by Sunday as a weakness in the upr
ridge could send some energy across the area to aid in convective
development.

Drier air attempts to build in from the NW early next week with the
threat for scattered storms remaining across much of central GA. The
center of the upr high meanders back toward the SE region by mid
week maintaining a hot pattern across the area. Temperatures by the
middle of the week heading into 4th of July could be running 5-10F
degrees above normal.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Conds to deteriorate through the morning. Cigs initially 10kft or
higher will drop to BKN low-VFR by 14-15Z with arrival of wave of
moisture. -TSRA will be possible (and likely at times) over a
broad window spanning 18-02Z, currently captured by both a TEMPO
and PROB30 group. Impacts most probable to northern terminals
between 18-22Z. MVFR vsbys psbl during heaviest pcpn. Winds will
be out of the W side (WNW to SW) at 5-6kts through early aftn,
swinging to the SE by 22-23Z... again at 6kts or less. Nonzero chc
of low- MVFR to IFR cigs Friday morning.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  73  92 /  40  40  40  50
Atlanta         74  92  76  94 /  40  40  30  50
Blairsville     67  85  69  86 /  30  60  40  70
Cartersville    71  92  73  93 /  30  40  20  60
Columbus        74  93  75  94 /  40  50  20  40
Gainesville     72  89  74  90 /  30  40  40  60
Macon           72  94  73  95 /  30  50  20  30
Rome            72  93  75  94 /  30  40  20  60
Peachtree City  71  93  73  94 /  30  40  20  40
Vidalia         75  97  76  97 /  40  70  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...96