560
FXUS64 KFWD 291929
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/
/Today Through Thursday/

Showers and isolated storms have exited the region, and the
forecast has trended much drier for the remainder of the afternoon
and overnight period. The main exception will be the potential for
isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, generally
across Central Texas and portions of East/Southeast Texas. Severe
weather will be unlikely with this activity given lift will be
minimal in the absence of any substantial surface boundaries.
However, we can`t entirely rule out an isolated instance of
quarter size hail and/or damaging wind gusts if any overzealous
storms are able to develop.

Our attention then turns to tomorrow morning, as northwest flow
aloft will bring a complex of storms from the High Plains into
North Texas. Ahead of this system, some early morning showers and
perhaps a few storms may develop across the region. The complex
of storms should arrive at our northwestern border between 7-9 am
and will continue moving east/southeast into the afternoon, with
most of this activity remaining near and north of I-20.
Instability and deep layer shear will support the potential for
damaging wind gusts, with a lower threat for large hail. Weak low
level flow will keep the tornado threat low. Any discrete storms
that develop tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon, will have a
higher chance of producing large hail.

All showers and storms are expected to exit to the east mid to
late afternoon, but another storm system won`t be too far behind
(more on that in the long-term discussion below). Fortunately, the
cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly below normal
tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

By Thursday night, the initial afternoon complex mentioned in the
short term discussion above should be exiting our northwest
counties. However just upstream of the departing activity, another
MCS will be making its way southeast across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. This cluster is expected to move across North and
Central Texas after midnight into the early morning hours, likely
impacting the morning commute. Severe storms will be possible with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. There is a lower
tertiary tornado threat with this round of activity, especially
along the leading edge of the line where a couple spin-up tornadoes
are possible. An additional cluster of storms looks to move in
behind the morning line over Friday afternoon. This line would also
have the potential to become severe, if the atmosphere does not end
up too worked over from the previous activity. PWATs close to 2"
will promote heavy rain during this time. With already saturated
soils across the region, there will be an increased concern for
flash flooding going into the weekend.

While the Southern Plains will generally stay within the top of the
broad longwave ridge across Latin America, multiple shortwave
disturbances will ride along the apex through next week bringing on
and off storm chances for North and Central Texas. Ensemble guidance
shows increased severe probabilities across the region through the
weekend for our area, so we`ll need to keep that in mind as we go
through this week. CSU severe probs also highlight our CWA each day.
For now, keep an eye on the forecast each day and have your safety
plan in place. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings including your cell phone, weather radio, and outdoor
warning sirens.

Last but not least, temperatures over next week will increase back
into the mid 80s and 90s. While ambient temperatures are near normal
for this time of year, persistently high dewpoints in the low-mid
70s (close to record high values for DFW) will push heat indices
closer to around 100 each afternoon Monday-Wednesday. Make sure to
practice heat safety as we head into the first week of
meteorological summer!

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the remainder of the day along with
southeast winds near 10 knots or less. Isolated storms may develop
across Central Texas, so a brief window of VCTS has been included
in the KACT TAF late this afternoon. However, it`s possible this
activity will remain well south or east of the airport.

MVFR ceilings are expected early Thursday morning with scattered
showers developing across the region. A complex of storms will
approach from the northwest early in the morning, arriving in D10
around 15Z or so. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern
with this activity, with a lesser threat for large hail.
Additional scattered storms are expected to develop across Central
Texas throughout the day, and the hail threat may be slightly
higher with this activity. Showers and storms should end from west
to east between 18-20Z, with VFR ceilings gradually scattering out
through the remainder of the afternoon. Outside of any storms,
winds will remain out of the southeast around 10-12 knots or less.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  84  70  82  69 /  20  70  50  60  40
Waco                71  82  71  84  69 /  20  40  40  70  50
Paris               67  79  67  78  66 /  10  70  50  70  50
Denton              70  83  67  81  66 /  20  70  60  70  40
McKinney            70  82  67  79  67 /  20  70  50  70  40
Dallas              71  84  70  82  68 /  20  70  50  60  40
Terrell             68  82  68  81  68 /  20  70  50  70  40
Corsicana           69  84  71  84  70 /  20  60  40  70  50
Temple              71  84  72  85  69 /  20  40  30  60  50
Mineral Wells       68  84  68  82  67 /  20  70  60  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$