588
FXUS64 KHGX 161117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to
pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over
Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge`s greater influence,
northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should
bring slighter cooler highs. By in large, highs will in the upper
80s to upper 90s across the area, possibly a degree or so cooler
compared to Sunday. Subsidence and lacking upper level support
should keep rain chances slim. Tuesday will feature equally benign
weather as well, with lows largely in the 70s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mostly dry with moderate to major heat risk are the main weather
story in the long term. Ridging aloft remains strong with the axis
extending to our west across the central and southern Plains. At
the surface, high pressure to our east will continue to bring warm
and humid southerly flow into the region. As we head into the
weekend, 500 mb heights increase even more (around 588-591 dm),
suggesting more subsidence/drier conditions. Even with a dry layer
at mid to upper levels, there are still some low level moisture,
especially near the coast. Therefore, cannot rule out an isolated
shower/storm or two developing along the sea breeze, mainly in
the afternoon/early evening. Previous forecast had chances of
rain/storm next Saturday and Sunday. However, with the center of
the ridge situated over the region; any activity that attempt to
develop will need to overcome the cap and any dry air entrainment.
Have leaned towards a drier forecast with PoPs only around 15
percent.

Temperature-wise, it will continue to be hot with highs mainly in
the mid 90s. This is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Peak heat
index values will generally be into the 105 to 107 degF range.
Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week with heat
indices at or above advisory criteria across our southwestern
counties. Heat headlines will be possible.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mix of MVFR to LIFR Fog/CIGS should clear up later this morning
after sunrise. VFR conditions and light winds, mostly
northeasterly, will prevail throughout the day, possibly shifting
southerly with the afternoon sea breeze. Another round of patchy
fog/CIGs may develop overnight into the early morning hours of
Tuesday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Fair weather continues as surface high pressure centered over the
northwestern Gulf remains strong. Light winds and low seas will
prevail through most of the period. Light offshore winds will be
possible at times today and Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary
meanders over the region. However, onshore flow should prevail
through most of the week. A few showers or storms will be possible
at times, but minimal impacts are expected.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  75  94  76 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  77  86  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM