Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 171608
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1108 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Not planning on any changes with the forecast for the update. It
should be another hot day given the W/SW mid/low level winds and
clear skies across SE TX this afternoon. Grids appear to have it
covered for the short-term. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 247 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

Dew point depressions continue to fall early this morning and
expect patchy fog development to begin within the next hour or two
before lifting shortly after sunrise. GOES Total Precipitable
Water imagery shows precipitable water values only ranging from
1-1.2 inches and with this dry airmass remaining in place today,
expect temperatures to efficiently heat again to near or record
levels in the low to mid 90s inland. Any convection that is able
to develop across northwestern and northern Texas will again need
to be monitored for any possible arrival into the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods later this afternoon or evening, but maintaining a
dry forecast for now. Persistence will generally remain the theme
of the forecast tonight and Friday with patchy morning fog
west/southwest of Houston giving way to near or record high
temperatures in the afternoon, but the return of onshore flow
during the day Friday may keep highs 1-2 degrees lower than today.

Upper ridging slides over the region Friday and persists through
the weekend, allowing hot and mostly dry conditions to continue
through Sunday. Precipitable water values begin to increase back
near 1.3 inches by Sunday, and this may be enough to squeeze out a
shower or two along the sea breeze by Sunday afternoon. Slightly
better chances will exist Monday through Wednesday as a series of
shortwave troughs skirting the top of this upper ridge near the
region and provide some forcing for development, but timing of
these disturbances and placement of the upper ridge axis remain
somewhat inconsistent in the medium range guidance. For now,
capping rain chances between 10-20 percent during this time.
Temperatures are still expected to remain in the low 90s inland
through the weekend and into the middle of the upcoming week, with
the Gulf waters keeping temperatures along the coast slightly
cooler in the mid to upper 80s.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  70  94  71  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)              95  72  94  73  92 /  10  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            87  76  87  77  86 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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