Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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484 FXUS64 KLZK 241117 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A cdfrnt was noted acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA early Tues mrng, and should cont to slowly move S/Ewrd thru the day today. After a few days of unsettled wx, generally drier wx condns wl resume today, at least briefly. Any precip activity should stay limited to isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, as the frnt slowly moves thru the region. Aloft, a highly amplified upper lvl pattern wl be in place acrs the CONUS w/ strong ridging building over the Cont Divide, and robust troughing staying rooted over the Cntrl US. Thru the day Tues and into Wed, guidance remains consistent on a lobe of this upper trof bcmg detached fm the mean flow, resulting in a cutoff low centered over the FA and greater Mid-South. An additional round of scattered precip wl be possible thru the day Wed as another cdfrnt on the periphery of sfc high pressure approaches, in tandem w/ the basal region and vorticity max of the upper trof pivoting acrs the Natural State. Temps acrs the FA wl trend downwards towards more normal values Tues into Wed, w/ aftn readings in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight lows dipping into the low 50s acrs Nrn to N/Wrn AR, and low to mid 60s noted elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A complex weather pattern is expected in the long term. At the beginning of the period, a robust storm system aloft will be over northeast Arkansas/southeast Missouri. The system will be wedged between ridges of high pressure in the Plains and just off the mid Atlantic Coast, and will have nowhere to go. Meanwhile, what should be tropical system Helene will be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Through Friday, the storm system in our vicinity will likely wobble around, with the tropical system forecast to make landfall in Florida before weakening and heading northward. Models continue to show some interaction between the two systems, and that could result in moisture pulled in our direction and significant rainfall in or near the state. For now, there is still a potential for two to more than three inches of rain in northern Arkansas Thursday/Friday. Granted, trends are taking the axis of heaviest rain a little more to the north/east with time. Some data does not support the wet scenario locally at all, with downpours spreading through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and staying out of areas farther west. A lot will depend on where the system aloft wobbles. If the system stays at home, or drifts to the south, then the rain will come. If the system manages to edge to the east of the area, the rain will follow. By the weekend/early next week, the rain machine will not be so impressive, with scattered showers/some thunder remaining. Our rain chances will gradually decrease, with only spotty precipitation left behind. As far as temperatures, readings through much of the period will be at/below seasonal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Sfc cdfrnt continues to move S/Ewrd thru the FA, now nearing S/Ern AR. VCSH activity should dwindle, and remain limited thru the day. Mixed MVFR condns remain prevalent acrs much of the FA this mrng, and should improve to VFR at most areas by 24/15-16Z. Winds wl bcm N/Wrly in the wake of the frnt, w/ some gusty condns possible at Nrn to Cntrl terminals. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 81 60 77 59 / 10 20 20 10 Camden AR 86 63 80 59 / 10 30 30 10 Harrison AR 76 55 75 54 / 10 20 20 10 Hot Springs AR 86 63 82 59 / 0 40 20 10 Little Rock AR 86 65 80 61 / 0 40 20 10 Monticello AR 88 65 80 61 / 10 10 30 10 Mount Ida AR 85 59 81 56 / 0 50 20 10 Mountain Home AR 77 56 77 56 / 10 20 20 10 Newport AR 80 61 77 58 / 10 20 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 86 63 79 59 / 10 20 30 10 Russellville AR 83 60 81 59 / 0 30 10 10 Searcy AR 83 62 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 Stuttgart AR 83 64 78 59 / 10 30 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...72