398
FXUS62 KMHX 141519
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1119 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure moves northeast well off the Carolina
Coast today. A cold front then pushes through Saturday morning. High
pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1100 AM Friday...

 - Low pressure passes offshore today with minimal impact
   locally

Based on satellite imagery and buoy obs, a 1009mb surface low
is located about 130 miles southeast of Cape Lookout at this
time. On the NW side of the low, a weak convergence zone is
supporting a SW to NE oriented band of showers, some of which
have been glancing the Cape Hatteras area. The coverage
continues to be isolated, and with the low pulling away, I don`t
expect much of an increase through the afternoon. Based on
this, I have lowered the chance of showers for the remainder of
the day around the central/southern OBX. Elsewhere, the only
other real change was to increase temps some. Full sunshine and
warming thicknesses are allowing temps to quickly rise into the
80s, despite the northeasterly flow. This should support highs
topping out in the low 90s inland, and mid to upper 80s along
the coast. It will be a dry warmth, though, with the "feels
like" temperature close to the actual air temperature.

Prev discussion...Sfc low will continue to lift northeastward
along the Gulf Stream and well offshore today. A few light rain
showers are still possible along the OBX, but have lowered pops
a decent amt as looks like the bulk of rain is remaining well
offshore. Low level thickness values and NE flow support highs
in the 80s for the beaches and climbing into the low 90s inland.
Nerly flow keeps temps around 80 for much of the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Fri...In wake of departing offshore low, a cold
front will be dragged down through ENC overnight tonight. This
front will be moisture-starved, and with timing of front coming
through late tonight, instability will be non existent, so
outside of a few sprinkles, the area will be dry, and have not
introduced any pops attm. Lows near to slightly above climo, in
the upper 60s interior to low 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM Friday...

Key Points:

- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Saturday afternoon guidance is keying in on isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Onslow, Jones, Craven,
and Carteret Counties along the sea breeze. Handled this with a
15-20% PoP (Schc) between 18Z Saturday and and 00Z Sunday.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday evening/night
allowing Tds to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s. Unsure how this
boundary will interact with the sea breeze if the timing lines up,
but the additional forcing would be more conducive to storm
formation.

Monday through Thursday...We enter an extended period of dry, warm
weather as strong ridging envelops the eastern US. This
prolonged dry weather would bring fire weather concerns, but
fortunately winds should remain light during this period with
the high. 0Z model guidance does suggest the potential of a weak
coastal trof that may approach our area by mid to late week. Too
far out to do more than chance pops at this time, which also
match climo for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Fri...VFR conditions with light winds expected
through the TAF period. Winds will be nerly today, then switch
to onshore, or serly tonight, though remaining below 5 kt. A dry
cool front moves in later tonight bringing winds around to nwrly
towards daybreak Sat.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1100 AM Friday...

 - Elevated winds and seas continue

Based on satellite imagery and buoy obs, a 1009mb surface low
is located about 130 miles southeast of Cape Lookout at this
time. Despite the nearby proximity of the low, buoy obs show
seas are mostly in the 2-4 ft range across the coastal waters,
and winds are in the 10-20kt range. Based on these observations,
and given that the low is pulling away from the area, we still
do not expect to see widespread, or long-lasting, SCA conditions
today, and we`ll continue with no headlines.

Previous Discussion...Sfc low will continue to lift
northeastward along the Gulf Stream today and well off the NC
coast. Nerly winds of 10-20 kt expected today with seas 3-5 ft
(highest south of Hatteras). Could be a couple hours of 6 ft
seas between Hatteras and Ocracoke this afternoon, but duration
of the possible higher seas does not warrant SCA issuance attm.
A few showers and possibly a tstorm possible over the Gulf
Stream waters through this morning.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Cold front moves through early Saturday,
pushing the low away to the NE Saturday. A secondary back door
cold front moving through will then move through later Saturday.
This sequence of events will result in rapid wind changes, and
brief periods of gusty conditions right along and behind the
fronts. Next week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves
2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure
dominates

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH/TL
MARINE...EH/RM/TL