582
FXUS62 KMLB 271126
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
726 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

IMPACT:
- Afternoon/evening storms, highest chance (60%) for coastal
  terminals with VIS/CIG restrictions in their vicinity.

Light southwest winds continue this morning. A few showers will
try to reach LEE through 16Z from the west. For 27/18Z-23Z,
40-50% chance for storms at MCO/Greater Orlando terminals,
increasing to 60% along the coastal terminals. Persisted with
previous TAF package trends, only tweaking timing based on latest
guidance. Short-fused TEMPOs may be required for MCO if
convection becomes more widespread over the metro area. Sea breeze
remains pinned at the coast through the afternoon. VFR outside of
storms.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Key Messages...

-Summertime pattern of scattered afternoon and evening showers
 and storms will continue over the next several days.

-Remaining hot and humid across the region, with highs in the low
 to mid 90s each day and peak heat index values around 102-107.

Today-Friday...Mid-level trough axis digging slowly across the
southeast U.S. gradually fades through late week, with weak quasi-
stationary front persisting north of Florida. This keeps the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of the region
today and tomorrow. Low level offshore flow will be a tad stronger
today out of the W/SW, which may pin the east coast sea breeze
closer to the coast, and may not be able to develop at all north of
the Cape. Scattered showers and storms will develop through the
afternoon ahead of the west coast breeze, with some enhancement in
coverage possible with boundary interactions with the east coast sea
breeze closer to the I-95 corridor. As ridge axis nudges a little
farther northward, but still south of the area on Friday, this will
weaken low level offshore flow and should favor late day boundary
collisions a little farther inland of I-95 tomorrow. Rain chances
each day range from 50-60 percent. Some lingering drier air aloft
will still favor a few stronger storms each afternoon/early evening,
with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes and gusty
winds to 40-45 mph. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also
be possible in any stronger or slow moving storms.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail across the area through late
week, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Delayed sea breeze
development should even allow coastal sites to reach the mid 90s
today. Peak heat index values will reach to around 102-107 each
afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with
overnight lows in the 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
shifts back northward into the region this weekend, which will lead
to a weak S/SW flow on Saturday, becoming S/SE on Sunday. East coast
sea breeze will develop early in the afternoon and move gradually
inland, with late afternoon/early evening sea breeze/outflow
boundary collisions and greater storm coverage favored over the
interior into the weekend. Moisture remains high enough, with PW
around 2-2.3 inches, for scattered to potentially numerous showers
and storms each day. PoPs range from 50 percent along the coast to
60 percent generally west of I-95. Gusty winds, lightning strikes,
and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threats
from any stronger storms.

Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast, and low to mid
90s across the interior, with peak heat index values still around
102-107 through the weekend. Overnight lows remain in the 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...Ridge aloft centered over the south-central U.S.
early next week will expand eastward across the southeast states and
Florida through the middle portion of next week. At the surface,
another weak front moves into the southeast U.S., with ridge axis
either near or shifting just south of Lake Okeechobee. This will
lead to a prevailing low level S/SW flow across the area through
this period, which will continue hot and humid conditions and
provide enough moisture for at least scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms from early to mid week. PoPs continue around 50-
60 percent each day, with highs continuing in the low to mid 90s.
Peak heat index values look to continue to generally range from
around 102-107 for much of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area
today, which will lead to a continued W/SW flow through this morning
around 10 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE this afternoon and remain
around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze forms, but remains
pinned toward the coast. Seas will range from 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving storms are forecast, especially from mid
afternoon through early evening. Some may produce strong gusty winds
and frequent lightning strikes as they move off the coast into the
nearshore waters.

Friday-Monday...Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but
remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward
into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week.
Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5-
10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms
and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at
times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible
each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  96  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
MLB  94  76  92  76 /  60  20  50  30
VRB  94  74  93  75 /  60  20  50  30
LEE  93  77  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
SFB  95  76  94  76 /  60  10  60  20
ORL  94  77  94  78 /  60  10  60  20
FPR  94  74  93  75 /  60  20  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil