235
FXUS63 KSGF 271752
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly less hot today. Hot again Friday/Saturday and
  slightly cooler Sunday.

- 15-30% chance of showers across the north tonight; most stay
  dry.

- Larger-scale system bringing widespread precipitation chances
  up to 50% Friday night through Sunday morning.

- Humid heat returns next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

With the frontal system that brought us storms yesterday pushed off
to the southeast, we`re now experiencing an inverted ridge at the
surface and increasingly zonal flow aloft. This will make for a calm
day with light winds that turn clockwise as surface high pressure to
the northeast moves east. It will be mostly sunny today, but clouds
gradually build in ahead of a surface low pressure center to the
northwest as it moves closer. We`ll be a bit "cooler" today with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with similar Heat Index values due
to moisture in the region getting advected away toward the low
pressure in the west.

Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, some prefrontal shortwave
energy may allow for some storms to fire in the far western and
northern portions of the CWA. The Storm Prediction Center has
included our SE KS counties and Vernon county in a Marginal risk
(1/5) for severe storms. There is a Slight risk (2/5) directly to
our west in Kansas, and the expectation is that multicells/transient
supercells out that way will be capable of damaging winds and hail
but will struggle to persist this far east due to capping and lack
of upper-level support. PoPs for this activity remain below 40%, and
the vast majority are expected to remain dry.

Lows tonight largely in the 60s will be welcomed as a slight respite
from the heat and warm lows we have been experiencing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper-level ridging builds back in into the weekend, though it
remains quite zonal over the Ozarks, and pockets of upper-level
vorticity will help to support surface low pressure moving in from
the west. This combination will allow for both warming temperatures
and rain chances into the weekend. Heat Index values will be back on
the rise Friday and Saturday, rising to around 100 Friday and up to
110 Saturday for those south of I-44. The need for a Heat Advisory
will be evaluated as confidence increases.

As the upper-level ridge(ish) pattern moves east and the deep low
pressure center moves by, a cooler airmass will be ushered in as the
Ozarks lie in the surface trough region. Highs Sunday will top out
in the 80s, which makes it the coolest day we have had in the
forecast for a while. As the system moves through, we`re looking at
widespread rain potential beginning Friday night and ending Sunday
morning. Areas north of I-44 are included in an SPC Marginal risk
Friday, underlining that a few of these storms could be strong. PoPs
largely remain under 50% for the duration of the event,
however; showers and storms may be spotty.


Long term model ensembles are predicting strong ridging and the
return of oppressive heat next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure over the region will bring VFR flight conditions
through tonight into Friday. There is good confidence in
limited impacts from cloud cover with scattered to broken
ceilings at or above 25kft. Surface winds will become more
southeasterly and gusty by late Friday morning.

An isolated storm may be possible across western portions of the
Ozarks through the next 24 hours, mainly impacting the KJLN
area. Confidence is low (~10%) but will be watch heading into
tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Hatch