029
FXUS64 KTSA 140447
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

An ongoing complex of organized thunderstorms across central and
southeast Kansas will make a run at far northeast Oklahoma over
the next few hours. The environment across northeast Oklahoma is
not the most favorable for storm continuation through the evening
as capping increases and mid level dry air will likely weaken
updraft formation. The best chances will stay along the OK/KS
border with storms expected to dissipate as they near I-44 later
tonight. Gusty strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with
any storm that enters northeast Oklahoma, along with frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a warm and humid
night is expected across the region with mainly light winds and
mid to high cloud cover over the area. Lows tonight will generally
be in the low 70s to mid 60s.

Update for tonight adjusted PoPs/Thunder grids across northeast
Oklahoma to account for trends in storm activity. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Weakening frontal boundary is forecast to eventually push into
far northeast OK and northwest AR Friday afternoon. Higher dew
points are likely to pool near the frontal zone, with heat indices
reaching 100-105 through a large portion of northeast OK. The
enhanced moisture could also result in an isolated storm or two
Friday afternoon/evening. By Saturday the front will have
basically washed out with a bit lower dew points keeping HI values
down a few degrees.

A shortwave moving across the Central Plains late Saturday into
Sunday will enhance storm coverage to our north during that
period, with a few potentially drifting into far northern areas.
Once this moves east, deeper moisture should surge north as the
upper ridge moves east. At least isolated afternoon and evening a
few degrees storms expected along with few degrees of cooling, but
with higher humidity. Ridge is expected to expand back to the
west later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions and light winds should prevail through the period.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Kansas border have a low to medium
chance to impact BVO and will continue the TEMPO group for this
potential through 07Z, as well as the TEMPO for the gusty outflow
winds from the complex at TUL and RVS through 08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  96  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  96  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   68  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   67  93  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   68  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
MKO   68  94  71  94 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   70  91  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
F10   68  94  69  93 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   65  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22