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248
FXUS62 KILM 131956
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low
pressure passes offshore on Friday. A mainly dry cold front
will move through on Saturday followed by more high pressure
which will bring seasonably warm and dry weather through the
middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Gusty onshore winds continue this afternoon along the coast where
onshore flow is increasing due to a developing low well offshore.
The main impact these surface winds and their associated swell has
been impacts to the surf zone. Strong longshore currents have been
observed across portions of the area and a choppy surf zone has
prompted some beaches to fly red flags as we head into a busy
weekend.

Quieter conditions exist inland where less cloud cover this morning
has allowed temperatures to approach 90 degrees. Drier air aloft has
mixed down and dew points are in the low 60s and upper 50s. Extreme
southeastern Georgetown county may see a shower late this afternoon
where onshore convergence is developing into isolated showers over
CHS`s forecast area. Any showers that develop should be brief.

Quiet and mostly clear this evening. Winds become calm inland and
shift slightly to the N/NE along the coast. Some lingering boundary
layer moisture could lead to low clouds along the coast this
evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid and upper 60s with
the introduction of drier air late tonight.

Subsidence near the developing low will bring temperatures into the
low to mid 90s on Friday. A tight gradient will produce northerly
winds on Friday, some areas gusting to 20 mph before noon. Northerly
flow will keep the sea breeze near the coast and allow 90s to creep
into portions of our coastal communities. Surface convergence along
the sea breeze could bring an isolated shower to our coastal areas
during the afternoon, but chances remain low. As the low tracks
eastward throughout the day, winds will weaken and the sea breeze
will start to push onshore. The exiting low will bring a cold front
through the area late Friday and Friday evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Strengthening surface low pressure will shift northeastward off
the coast while the mid-level trough axis becomes nearly
vertically aligned with this low. With a stronger shortwave
embedded in the flow to our north expected to pick up this low
and carry it away on Friday night and Saturday, a small window
and subsequently low chance exists for it to develop subtropical
characteristics. Thus, the National Hurricane Center maintains a
low (20%) chance for formation.

Behind this low, a cold front is expected to slide down from
the north on Saturday and stall near or just south of the
forecast area on Saturday night. Slight-chance PoPs are carried
for Saturday afternoon and evening as some hi-res guidance
depicts shower and storm development along the front, which is
possible with weak to moderate instability and weak to modest
shear in place. However, with the region located on the
backside of mid-level troughing, which will result in
substantial subsidence and dry air above 700mb, it will be hard
for anything that does develop to grow and sustain itself. Winds will
turn northerly behind the front before settling on easterly as
high pressure passing through New England takes control.

Above-normal temperatures are expected before the cold frontal
passage. Morning lows on Saturday morning will be kept up by dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Subsidence behind the strengthening
and departing surface low will help to boost daytime highs on
Saturday into the low-mid 90s, with heat indies peaking in the
upper 90s to around 100F. Behind the cold front, slightly drier
air should nudge in, bringing lows down at least a couple
degrees in the Cape Fear area, with lows otherwise around 70F
elsewhere.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A persistent mid-level anticyclone is expected to dominate the
long term period with its center shifting from the Southeast US
on Sunday to the Northeast US by Wednesday. At the surface, high
pressure initially over New England will shift offshore and take
up residence south of Nova Scotia through midweek. This setup
will yield a mainly dry and seasonable pattern through much of
the upcoming week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and
lows in the mid-upper 60s amidst a generally easterly onshore
flow. A coastal trough is progged to develop by Wednesday and
become more prominent on Thursday, leading to shower and
thunderstorm chances for coastal areas during the midweek
timeframe and beyond.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR this afternoon with a mix of cumulus and upper level clouds
along the coast. Gusts up to 20 knots possible along the coast
in onshore flow today. Light winds back this evening, becoming
NE. Onshore flow and boundary layer moisture advection will
continue this evening which may bring MVFR stratus to the Grand
Strand prior to 06Z. Drier air moves in as N winds surge after
06Z. Clear skies, VFR, and hot on Friday with a slight chance of
a shower along the coast during the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Friday...
Easterly winds remain 15-20 knots between high pressure to our north
and a developing low to our south. Onshore winds will gradually
shift to the north this evening, becoming northerly or northeasterly
by sunrise Friday. Winds on Friday morning remain elevated at around
15 knots with periodic gusts around 20 knots. As the area of low
pressure moves farther offshore, winds will weaken throughout the
day. By late afternoon, the sea breeze will overpower any synoptic
wind, becoming southerly at 10-15 knots. Cross seas remain a concern
overnight and early Friday. Southeast swells become the dominant
wave group late Friday as winds weaken and turn southerly.

Friday night through Tuesday...
Strengthening low pressure off the coast of the Outer Banks on
Friday night will continue moving away through Saturday. A cold
front will drop southeastward on Saturday afternoon, but it will
lose steam as it approaches the coast, causing a variable wind
direction into Saturday evening before settling on easterly as
high pressure to the north takes control. Winds are expected to
stay sub-SCA with mostly 10-15 kts speeds expected, although
some gusts in the 15-20 kt range are possible during each
afternoon. Seas are forecast to remain elevated in the 2-4 ft
range through the period. A southeast swell of 2-3 ft at 7 sec
should dominate through Saturday night before subsiding to 1-2
ft while an easterly wind wave of 2-3 ft at 6 sec takes over
from Sunday onward.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Other - Rip Currents: Persistent easterly swells in the 2-4 ft
range and onshore winds of 10-15 kts will yield an extended
period of at least moderate rip current risk through this
weekend and possibly into early next week, mainly for east-
facing beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW