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512
FXUS62 KILM 151756
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the Carolinas today with showers
and thunderstorms possible as it slides through. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in from the north and maintain
control through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures
are expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a
coastal trough develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As we near 2 PM EDT, the cold front has now made it to the
coastal counties. Meanwhile, the seabreeze has formed and is
slowly pushing inland, making it past KCRE and KMYR, and
basically right over Shallotte and KILM right now. A couple of
isolated showers and storms have popped up, with the best one
over Marion County, heading into Horry County. As expected,
they`re all weak. The capping above 700mb is evident here.
Guidance suggests that this capping will try to weaken a bit
after 20-21Z, which would allow the isolated showers and storms
to tap into the ample instability.

Precipitable water is on the rise, but ironically, the moisture
profiles in RAP13 soundings don`t look very convincing. Best
forcing is way aloft, along and above 300mb. Storms this
afternoon will likely be outflow driven, with the seabreeze
pinned closer to the coast. Northeast SC in particular may deal
with more storms today than southeast NC.

Best setups here include the CAPE and DCAPE. Storms today may
produce some decent gusty winds. Not much helicity to work with,
but considering the very potent CAPE in place, we may have quite
the lightning show in some spots today, if the capping 700mb
erodes away.

Elsewhere, updated 18Z TAF discussion found below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall high resolution guidance has come into better
agreement with convection associated with a back door front this
afternoon. It appears there will decent coverage late afternoon into
early evening west to east from the Pee Dee region east to the
coast. While it appears there will be a significant sea breeze...the
extra convergence/lift provided by the front will be needed hence
the orientation. Very warm highs expected today with good coverage
of middle 90s...a little cooler along the beaches and just inland.
Finally the severe threat looks limited if for nothing else coverage
but downdraft cape values could get interesting noting the
antecedent conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will extend into the area from the north through
the period while a cold front stalls south and east of the area.
Dry weather is expected.  Highs each day will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will extend into the area from the north through
the period though there are indications a coastal trough could
develop late in the week. Overall, little rainfall is expected
though the coastal trough could bring a few showers or
thunderstorms to the coastal counties late in the week. Highs each
day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions open the 18Z TAF period, which is expected to
continue. Relatively low confidence on isolated storms this
afternoon, with KCRE/KMYR having the best chance (not that the
chances are that good). Threw in a TEMPO group from 19-22Z this
afternoon and evening. Storms would bring brief MVFR to IFR
conditions. Winds become a bit more variable tonight, with an
easterly wind picking up by early Sunday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Essentially light and variable winds most of the
day will transition to a better defined east to northeasterly flow
in the wake of a back door front later tonight. Significant seas
will be 2-3 feet.

Sunday through Wednesday...A generally easterly flow will
remain in place through the period with high pressure to our
north. Seas will run 2 to 3 feet with 4 ft seas possible at
times hearer 20 miles out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for east- and southeast-facing beaches tomorrow due to
a southeasterly 2-3 ft swell and mainly for east-facing beaches
on Sunday as an easterly swell takes over. Lingering swells and
onshore winds should keep a moderate risk of rip currents going
for mainly the east-facing beaches into early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM