-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
337
FXUS61 KRLX 170128
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
928 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged heat wave builds through next week amid mainly dry
weather courtesy of an upper level ridge. The chance for
isolated showers or storms returns on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...

Adjusted overnight temperatures a couple (to few) degrees lower
across portions of the CWA. Lows tonight bottom out in the 60s
across the lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s in the mountains.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 445 PM Sunday...

Made minor tweaks to temperatures and cloud cover into early
tonight. Additionally, have taken out the chance for ISOL
SHRAS/TSTMS across our far southwest zones this evening. The
latest NUCAPS soundings indicate significant dry air in the
low/mid levels. This should keep most, if not all of the area
dry this evening, with perhaps just the potential of a highly
isolated shower or two. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

As of 145 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the
  lowlands Monday afternoon. With an extended stretch of
  unseasonably hot weather on the way, make sure to keep heat
  safety in mind, and take frequent breaks in the air
  conditioning if possible.

It`s turning out to be quite a hot Sunday with temperatures
reaching the upper 80s across the lowlands, even approaching 90
degrees in some spots. The lower 90s are expected later this
afternoon. Dew point temperatures are reaching the lower to
middle 60s, making the air feel more humid. Pop-up showers and
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out this afternoon, mainly across
our southwest Virginia counties, where CAPE is a bit higher and
a field of cumulus is currently developing.

Quiet conditions are expected overnight. Another hot day is
expected Monday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing by the afternoon. Dew points will reach the lower 70s
and temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the lowlands,
making it a high CAPE environment with low shear. Severe weather
is generally not expected, but we can`t rule out a few tall
thunderstorms producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Heat index
values will likely reach the upper 90s and lower 100s across the
lowlands. Upgrades from Excessive Heat Watch may be needed
either overnight or Monday morning for the upcoming hot weather
on Monday afternoon.

In addition, it`s important to practice heat safety. Make sure
to drink plenty of water and electrolyte containing beverages if
spending extended time outside. In addition, it`s important to
apply sunscreen and take frequent breaks in the shade or the air
conditioning to cool off. Make sure to frequently check on the
elderly and those more susceptible to heat related illness.
Never leave pets or children unattended in vehicles during this
hot stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Excessive Heat Watch continues Tuesday through Friday.

For Tuesday, broad upper level high pressure overhead will block any
shortwave energy to move over our area, providing mostly clear
skies through the period. At the surface, high pressure to our
east maintains southwest flow, which continues to bring
moisture and warm air advection to the area on Tuesday. The
moisture, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s, will
produce strong bouyancy. Dewpoints in the lower 70s, PWATs
around 1.8 inches, under high CAPE; low shear environment will
support isolated pulse thunderstorms, some with strong updrafts
Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, locally heavy downpours can be
expected Tuesday afternoon. Models that bring precipitation on
Tuesday are the NAM, RAP13 and GFS. Any convection that manage
to develop will quickly dissipate by sunset. Added PoPs and
thunderstorms to the forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Under mostly clear skies, outside afternoon showers or storms, highs
on Tuesday are expected to rise into the mid 90s. With dewpoints in
the lower 70s, heat index values will reach the triple digits
at some spots across the lowlands. Therefore, an Excessive Heat
Watch remains in effect. It is anticipated that a Heat Advisory
will be required for Tuesday at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Excessive Heat Watch continues through Friday.

Persisting high pressure will remain in control Wednesday through
Friday, continuing with dry and hot weather. High pressure
eventually loosens its influence over the area and begins to recede
south next weekend, bringing chance for precipitation over the
weekend.

Daily high temperatures across the lowlands will increase from the
mid 90s on Wednesday, into the upper 90s by Friday. Over the
mountains, highs should be from the mid 80s to low 90s. Meanwhile,
heat index values are expected to climb into the upper 90s to low
100s for the lowlands again Wednesday through Friday afternoon.
Additional Heat headlines will be required through this period.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...

Conditions will remain largely VFR overnight. The one exception
may be EKN with MVFR/IFR/LIFR fog later tonight. Additionally,
a few ISOL showers are possible later tonight across the area.
The chance for ISOL showers and even thunderstorms continues on
Monday, particularly in the afternoon/evening. While mainly VFR
conditions persist, brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are
possible within heavier showers or any thunderstorms, along with
gusty winds. The chance for rainfall exists area-wide, but will
be slightly favored in/near the higher terrain. Given location/timing
uncertainty, showers or thunderstorms have not been coded into
most TAFs for the time being.

Calm or light S/SSE surface flow is expected overnight. Occasional
breezes to 15-20 kts are possible in/near the higher terrain
into early tonight. Expect light winds from the southwest or
southeast on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium with any showers or
storms on Monday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions
could occur on Monday with ISOL showers or thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 06/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 920 PM Sunday...

A prolonged heat wave builds across the area through next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to
Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites,
along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Monday, 6/17  |  Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 98 (1919) |
HTS | 92 /100 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 95 / 98 (1994) |
CKB | 91 / 96 (1967) | 94 / 96 (1936) | 95 / 94 (1994) |
PKB | 93 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 96 / 95 (1994) |
BKW | 85 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 93 (1936) | 87 / 90 (1944) |
EKN | 89 / 92 (1936) | 91 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) |
--------------------------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  | Saturday, 6/22
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 95 / 99 (1931) | 96 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) |
HTS | 96 /100 (1931) | 98 / 99 (1953) | 96 / 98 (1988) |
CKB | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) | 96 / 97 (1923) |
PKB | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) |
BKW | 88 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 93 (1953) | 90 / 92 (1931) |
EKN | 93 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) | 93 / 93 (1923) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     96     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     98     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     91     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     93     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW