496
FXUS61 KAKQ 012329
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
729 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes tonight and becomes
centered off the coast on Tuesday, keeping below normal
temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but dry
conditions prevail Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning
late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures
  tonight/Tuesday.

The latest WX analysis depicts >1025mb sfc high pressure,
centered across the Great Lakes, continuing to build SE into the
local area. Aloft, the flow is NW in the wake of the departing
upper trough. A refreshingly cool dry airmass has spread over
the local area with temperatures mainly in the mid 70s to near
80F, dew pts in the 50s, and N winds of 10-20 mph. This is a
dramatic change from 24 hrs when some areas were experiencing
heat indices ~110F. SCT-BKN cumulus will diminish over the next
few hrs leaving a mainly clear sky this evening/overnight. The
sfc high is forecast to move ESE overnight, becoming centered
across the NE CONUS early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will
average in the mid 50s to around 60F well inland, with low-mid
60s closer to the coast . Light or clam winds overnight inland,
with onshore flow of 5-10mph SE VA/NE NC at the coast.

The sfc high will become centered along the coast from southern
New England to the Delmarva Tuesday aftn, keeping an easterly
flow in place in the low levels. Mainly sunny in the morning
with SCT aftn cumulus. A little warmer but still comfortable,
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in
the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...


The sfc high will sit just off the New England and Mid Atlc
coast Tue night and Wed. Clear to partly cloudy and still
rather comfortable Tue night, with lows in the upper 50s to
mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus for the return of
the upper ridge over the SE CONUS by Wed, as the sfc high is
slow to push farther offshore. Still enough onshore flow to
keep the significant heat away despite temperatures warming
back to about average. Highs mainly in the upper 80s inland
(lower 80s at the coast), with dew pts in the lower 60s.
Generally mostly sunny again. Dry and turning more humid Wed
night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F. The sfc high will be
far enough offshore Thursday/Independence Day to allow for an
increasing southerly flow, with hotter temperatures and
increasing humidity (though not to the level of what occurred on
Sunday). Highs will be into the mid 90s inland with upper
80s/lower 90s at the coast. Dew pts in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to ~103F (but should
be below heat advisory criteria). Some late aftn instability
develops with 20-40% chance for mainly late aftn/evening tstms
(highest PoPs NW). Partly cloudy and warm/humid Thursday night
with lows in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.

After a nice break from the heat/humidity, there remains strong
model consensus for another round of hot and humid weather
Friday through at least the upcoming weekend. The upper ridge
will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the
Carolinas, slowly shifting E off the SE coast over the weekend.
This will keep an series of upper troughs well off to our NW
through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great
Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore
will be conducive to a general SSW low level flow, but with some
seabreeze development possible. Overall, highs look to average
in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90-95F closer to the coast Fri-
Sat, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sun-Mon as a weak cold
front stalls or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have
gone a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dew pts,
but still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the
period, which would yield heat indices in the 100-105F range. As
for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly
aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the
piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze although with a lot of
uncertainty at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Very quiet wx and VFR through the 00z period. SKC tonight with
N/NNE winds ~5 kt. SCT CU again redevelops Mon aftn and could
become locally BKN during peak heating. Winds Tue will be ENE
initially, shifting to the E/ESE in the later aftn/evening. Wind
speeds will be 5-10kt inland and 10-15kt near the coast in SE
VA/NE NC.

Mainly VFR conditions continue through Thu outside of some
patchy ground fog early Wed/Thu morning (most of this will not
affect main terminals). Widely scattered showers/tstms possible
in the late aftn/evening Thu-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been extended until early evening
  (7PM/23z) for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River,
  Currituck Sound, and southern Atlantic coastal waters.

Cooler and much drier air continues to spill southward across the
waters in the wake of this morning`s cold front. 1026mb high
pressure is centered over Michigan with a weak inverted trough noted
just east of the higher terrain from NC into VA. Winds are out of
the N or NNW across the waters this afternoon with continued 15-20
kt flow across the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound.
Offshore, winds are not as strong, generally N 10-15 kt. Waves in
the bay are generally 2-3 ft while seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N
to 4-6 ft S.

Have extended SCA headlines in the aforementioned areas until
23z/7pm with continued cool/dry advection and hi-res guidance
showing 15-20 kt flow persisting into the early evening. High
pressure builds closer to the area tonight with decreasing
winds. N or NE flow will continue for SE VA and NE NC waters
this evening and SCA headlines may need to be extended further
as NE winds almost always result in prolonged higher seas than
guidance would suggest. Waves in the bay should subside to 1-3
ft by tonight. The majority of the work week will feature benign
boating conditions as high pressure gradually becomes anchored
offshore, allowing winds to transition from E-SE-S. By Thursday,
the next cold front will attempt to move toward the region from
the Ohio Valley with lee troughing over inland VA allowing the
pressure gradient along the coast to tighten modestly. The
chance for showers and storms will also increase late week into
the weekend with associated enhancements to local
winds/waves/seas.

Moderate rip current risk is forecast for the southern beaches on
Tuesday with a low risk for the northern beaches. A low rip risk is
forecast for all beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 Preliminary Temperature data:

- Site: Avg Temp/Departure

- RIC: 78.8 (+3.8) (4th warmest)
- ORF: 79.0 (+2.3) (5th warmest)
- SBY: 74.6 (+1.9) (not top 10)
- ECG: 76.9 (+0.7) (not top 10)

Rainfall was below average, but with locally heavy rain on the
30th, no site ranked among the top 10 driest.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...