269
FXUS61 KCAR 300052
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
852 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A warm
front lifts to the north late tonight, followed by a cold front
crossing the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then
builds through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
843 PM Update: Latest radar ref imagery shows a bit of break in
steadier rn entering the FA from Ern QB, but meso models show
ref to fill in somewhat more from the W later in the ovrngt
before another break erly Sun Morn. Fcst 6hrly QPFs in the
00-06z and 06-12z tm frames may be on the high side spcly across
the N, but to soon to have enough confidence to lower these
totals attm. Otherwise, fcst hrly temp/dwpts have updated into
the late ngt hrs from latest avbl erly eve sfc obs, with a few
lctns actually dropping about a def F cooler than fcst Ovrngt
lows. Subsequently, fcst ovrngt lows were updated to reflect
these obs, but we do not think hrly temps will fall much more if
any at all from this point onward, with most models actually
indicating slowly rising temps later Tngt.

Prev Disc: Showers are impacting entire region as PW values
increase toward 2 inches over the area this evening. Embedded
storms that may be able to develop in elevated instability will
have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will be located along the St. Lawrence Seaway by 12z
with warm advection showers exiting into New Brunswick by this
time. This will likely result in clouds breaking up by late
morning and into the early afternoon ahead of cold front moving
through. All parameters appear to be in place for an outbreak of
severe weather tomorrow afternoon. CAPE values range from
500-1500 in the afternoon, 0-6km shear values of 50-60kts, with
slightly curved hodographs. Hires CAMS are giving line of
convection with bowing segments possible. Given the low-level
shear and helicity values, cannot rule out an isolated tornado
but the main threat will be damaging winds tomorrow afternoon.
The only caveat will be the puny mid-level lapse rates expected
of around 6 C/km. However given the dynamics of the system along
the front and in RRQ of 120+ kt jet forcing should be able to
overcome the weaker lapse rates.

Cold front should move offshore Sunday evening with showers
winding down with perhaps an isolated storm still present along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will exit the coast Sunday evening. Any lingering
showers and thunderstorms will be moving away from the region
through early evening. A large area of high pressure will build
toward the region Sunday night with with partial clearing and much
drier air moving back in behind the front. Lows will fall into the
low to mid 50s across the north and the upper 50s for the Bangor
region. High pressure will then continue to build in Monday through
Tuesday. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies both days, along with
mainly clear skies for Monday night. Highs on Monday will range from
the mid to upper 70s and then warm into the lower 80s by Tuesday.
Low Monday night are expected to be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair weather continues Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure
builds to our south. A warm front will approach later Wednesday
evening and cross the the area Wednesday night. This will be
followed by a weak cold front on Thursday. Expect the chance for
showers Wednesday night and Thursday with the cold front. High
pressure builds back in on Friday. Another low approaches
Friday night and Saturday. Afternoon highs will average a bit
above normal this time of year in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR diminishing to MVFR/IFR this evening. Rain moves
in after 00z tonight with IFR fog/cigs impacting terminals late
this evening. Cannot rule out VCTS at BGR late but very little
confidence to include with this forecast.

LLWS will be present at all terminals tonight at FL020 from the
south 40-55kts.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night...MVFR or lower possible early toward KBGR/KBHB in
lingering SHRA/TSRA, otherwise VFR. NW to N wind 5 to 10 kt.

Mon through Wed...VFR. NW to N wind through Monday night becoming W
to SW Tue/Wed.

Wed night and Thu...VFR/MVFR. Chance showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will pick up from the south this evening over
all waters, continuing through the afternoon on Sunday. Seas
increase above 5ft late this evening and remain above sca levels
through the day on Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Seas may still range from 4 to 6 feet with gusts up
to 25 kt early across the outer waters, otherwise winds/seas
will remain below SCA levels through period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...VJN
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...VJN/TWD
Marine...VJN/TWD