093
FXUS65 KFGZ 290933
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
233 AM MST Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and storms are expected today, but
coverage will be limited besides in far eastern Arizona. Coverage
will increase and push back westward Sunday into next week as
temperatures remain warm. Drier, hot weather expected by the end
of next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Overall trended back up some with POPs for today.
Watching convective activity that took place in southern
Arizona/south of the border, taking into account the activity from
Friday, observing dewpoints increasing in southern Arizona, and
the upward trend in CAMs, it was concluded that coverage will not
be confined in far eastern AZ as previously thought. CAMs have
isolated activity as far west as Flagstaff this afternoon. Thus
POPs were manually manipulated to try and bring them back further
west. Coverage is still going to be pretty isolated besides in
far eastern Arizona and over the Whites though. Just a few lucky
individuals further west will get in on measurable
rainfall...though ample instability with some lingering shear with
a trough still passing through will bring a slightly elevated
severe threat, including hail and strong down burst/outflow winds.

After today, the forecast remains mostly unchanged: the departing
trough and westward pushing high will allow for monsoonal moisture
to start ramping back up over the region, pushing scattered shower
and storm chances to move back west Sunday into the start of next
work week. This will persist through at least the middle of the
coming work week.

By Thursday (4th of July), a strong high is still expected to
slide east over the west coast and setting up shop over the Great
Basin. This will set up a drier period with temperatures
increasing. Ensemble guidance continues to keep moisture pooled
south of the Rim under northerly flow, so rain chances are not
totally gone for the entire region at the moment...will have to
continue to track. As of now, the heat looks to be the biggest
risk that will need to be monitored, especially with the 4th of
July holiday coinciding and the weekend after. Overnight
recoveries especially for the lower elevations will be most
noteworthy as the lingering moisture would result in trapped heat
persisting overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 29/06Z through Sunday 30/06Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
Saturday afternoon along and south of a KPAN-KRQE line.
Gusty/erratic winds to 40 kts in the vicinity of storms. Away from
storms, southwest winds 5-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/06Z through Tuesday 02/06Z...Moisture and
storm chances increasing and spreading north Sunday and Monday.
Afternoon southwest winds 10-20 kts becoming light during the
overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Moisture has retreated
southeastward over the last 24-48 hours, but it has not completely
dried out. Expected isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, mainly southeast of a Prescott to Flagstaff to Window Rock
line. Shower and thunderstorms activity starts pushing back north
and west Sunday. The northern zones, especially northwestern, will
remain the driest. Away from thunderstorms, expect daytime southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum RH values stay above 15 percent through
the period.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity continue. Generally light winds, away from thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff