Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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434 FXUS64 KLCH 171948 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Some scattered light showers are moving near the Atchafalaya River and Basin this afternoon. Ultimately, this is the only thing going on across the forecast area. Temperatures have warmed into the low 90s, but with dewpoints mixing down into the upper 60s, it doesn`t feel too bad outdoors. For those receiving rainfall today, appreciate it! That will be the last appreciable rainfall any of us will see through the remainder of the short term period (and frankly, majority of the longterm period). High pressure develops over south-central Texas late tonight into Wednesday which will spread outward and move overtop the region. From here, expect dry conditions and a warming trend for the remainder of the work week. High daytime temperatures are already running near or slightly above climo normals (upper 80s to near 90) today. Wednesday and Thursday, expect a very small warming trend from one day to the next, bringing daytime highs into the low 90s. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The long range portion of the forecast remains essentially unchanged from yesterday with our dry and mostly warm pattern continuing. A mid/upper-level ridge initially extending from Old Mexico through TX into the srn Plains is progged to gradually shift ewd across the forecast area in response to a digging trof over the wrn CONUS. Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the lower MS Valley will gradually shift ewd. The result will be dry and warm conditions continuing through the weekend. By the time we get into next Tuesday, model solutions indicate the trof will shift ewd, breaking down the ridge and allowing for the capping to cease enough for the potential for a few showers/storms on day 8. Highs Friday/Saturday look to run in the lower 90s as ridging reigns supreme before a slow drop back into the upper 80s by Tuesday with the onset of better moisture/cloud cover. 25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An area of showers is developing near AEX. Elsewhere, shower development is very isolated. Expect these conditions to prevail until sundown: VFR ceilings, light showers and variable winds. Conditions will improve for a brief period after 01z until areas of patchy to widespread ground fog develop around 09z. Some areas could see dense fog, but confidence where this will occur is low. High pressure ridge moves in overnight bringing about dry, VFR conditions with light variable winds Wednesday morning. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will develop from late tonight into Wednesday as it ridges into the region from the west. This ridge will bring about a prolonged period of warm, dry conditions with light winds and low seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 90 70 91 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 74 90 74 91 / 10 20 0 10 LFT 74 90 74 92 / 10 20 0 10 BPT 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11