735
FXUS64 KLZK 291122 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

After a few days of relatively cooler condns, hazardous heat is set
to resume acrs the FA this aftn w/ fcst temps reaching the mid to
upper 90s at most locations. Heat index values area-wide are progged
to exceed 105F to 110F, necessitating area-wide heat headlines, w/
most of the state under either a heat advisory, or excessive heat
warning this aftn. Precip chcs this aftn should stay limited to far
Nrn AR, w/ only diurnal convective activity expected.

Sun, another synoptic cdfrnt is progged to approach the region, and
incrsg covg/magnitude of PoPs are expected fm Nrn AR towards Cntrl
to Srn AR fm Sun mrng to the early aftn hrs. Covg of rain and asctd
cloud cover, along w/ residual outflow and approaching Nrly sfc
winds wl lkly keep temps and heat index values below headline
levels, at least for Nrn AR to potentially Cntrl AR. Heat headlines
may still be necessary acrs Srn AR, depending on the timing and
onset of approaching precip/convective complexes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge will position over
Oklahoma and Arkansas. At the sfc, on Monday, the cold front that
moved through the state on Sunday is parked across northern
Louisiana allowing for the possibility of some elevated POPs across
southern Arkansas in the form of showers and a possible isolated
thunderstorm. Into the day on Tuesday, a warm front will lift
northeastward back across the state allowing for hot and moist
conditions to take hold across the state with nil chances for
rainfall.

Expect low rain and isolated thunderstorm chances across southern
Arkansas on Monday with chances statewide for any precipitation
becoming zero on Tuesday. Temperatures on Monday in terms of lows
and highs across the state will be near average as a slightly drier
and cooler airmass will be in place on Monday. Temperatures on
Tuesday will rebound significantly throughout the day as low
temperatures will be near normal, but high temperatures will be 5 to
10 degrees above normal as a warm front will traverse the state and
allow hot temperatures to return across the CWA.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (Independence Day)/FRIDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge that was fixated directly
over Oklahoma and Arkansas begins to elongate throughout the period
from over the Southern Plains region extending eastward over the Mid-
South and into the Southeastern region of the CONUS. A longwave trof
passes just north of the state from Thursday into Friday with the
northern stream of upper lvl activity. At the sfc, a frontal
boundary will be positioned just north of the CWA across Missouri
throughout the period. The combination of the features of the front
and the sfc high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will usher in
plenty of moisture that will allow some low opportunities of some
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern CWA on
Wednesday and Thursday before transitioning into most of the CWA by
Friday.

Expect low chances of showers and thunderstorms to develop across
northern and eventually most of the CWA to finish out the long-term
forecast period as a few isolated parcels that reach their
convective temperature will be likely over this period, but provide
an extremely isolated area of shower and thunderstorm potential
where they do form during the afternoon timeframe (hottest portion
of the day).

The mention of any precipitation may seem concerning for many going
into Thursday and Independence Day; however while it is critical to
stay vigilant to any showers and storms that do form, the more
concerning threat will be the heat as heat index values will be
between 105 and in excess of 110 across many locations. Equally
concerning will be the lack of relief overnight as many locations
across the state will only fall into the mid to upper 70s and
possibly not fall out of the lower 80s across metro areas for
several nights/early mornings. It will be a must to practice heat
safety by remaining hydrated and taking breaks out of the heat in a
location with sufficient air conditioning as we will be in a period
of low and high temperatures both 8 to 10 degrees above normal to
close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR condns are expected to persist thru the new TAF PD, w/ winds
bcmg S-S/Wrly by this aftn area-wide. Expect diurnal Cu to be the
prominent cloud covg today, and have introduced VCTS at Nrn
terminals for diurnal convective activity.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     99  75  88  66 /  10  30  40   0
Camden AR         97  77  96  73 /   0  10  40  10
Harrison AR       97  71  85  66 /  20  40  50  10
Hot Springs AR    99  77  94  72 /   0  10  50  10
Little Rock   AR  99  79  93  73 /  10  10  50  10
Monticello AR     96  79  95  74 /   0  10  50  10
Mount Ida AR      96  75  93  70 /  10  10  50  10
Mountain Home AR  97  72  85  66 /  20  40  40   0
Newport AR        98  75  88  68 /  10  30  40   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  78  93  73 /   0  10  50  10
Russellville AR   99  77  92  72 /  10  20  60  10
Searcy AR         99  76  91  69 /  10  20  50  10
Stuttgart AR      96  78  91  72 /   0  10  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ004-005-014-024-052-066>068-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-
203-212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-
062>065-069-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72