Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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554 FXUS62 KMFL 251842 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Models depict a rather typical summertime weather pattern continuing across SoFlo through the rest of today and tomorrow, with afternoon convection being mainly driven by sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, driven by advection of moisture from the caribbean and E GOMEX. Latest model PWATs remain slightly over 2 inches over SoFlo, which combined with daytime heating and weak lifting aloft will result in some strong storms in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze boundaries will again become focal points for initial convection as the generally westerly flow collides with the east coast sea breeze. With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas. The strongest cells will be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and tomorrow, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The forecast period begins with extended mid-level troughing and maintains weak southwesterly flow through the low levels. Mesoscale dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation. With ample boundary layer moisture present, both sea breeze boundaries will be areas of ascent to watch for daily shower and thunderstorm development. Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak flow pattern. Outflow boundaries may also become focal points for localized convection. Heading into the weekend, the troughing over South Florida will be pushed out by more extensive mid-level ridging. At 500 mb, a closed high should offer weak large-scale subsidence and maintain light deep-layer flow across the CWA along with adequate boundary layer moisture and near-normal PWATs. Additionally, our first notable Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume should advect into South Florida and provide some level of convective inhibition with drier air aloft. Depending on the evolution of the SAL, associated steep mid-level lapse rates could linger across portions of South Florida and keep the risk for thunderstorms elevated. With the lack of any appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent, convective coverage should be less widespread, with coverage favoring inland and SW parts of our CWA given a transition to an easterly flow. Temperatures will remain near our seasonal averages, with heat indices reaching the triple digits routinely. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Periods of MVFR/IFR are likely this afternoon and through around 21-22Z as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the area. Light and variable winds will be SSE to SW at 8-10kt through the rest of the afternoon hours, with the east coast sea breeze making flow erratic at times over the Atlantic terminals. Winds will again become light and variable after 26/00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Weak southwesterly winds will become moderate this afternoon and remain in place through the rest of the work week. Boating conditions will remain benign in general with seas 1-2 feet, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 77 92 / 30 70 20 60 West Kendall 75 91 74 92 / 30 60 20 50 Opa-Locka 77 92 77 93 / 40 70 20 60 Homestead 76 90 77 90 / 30 60 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 77 90 / 40 70 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 91 / 40 70 30 60 Pembroke Pines 78 92 78 93 / 40 70 20 60 West Palm Beach 75 91 76 92 / 40 70 20 60 Boca Raton 76 91 77 92 / 50 70 30 60 Naples 78 89 79 90 / 30 60 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....Pine AVIATION...99