552
FXUS64 KOUN 020344
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Heat Advisory, marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, and elevated
fire weather potential on Tuesday...

The mid-level ridge that was centered over northeast Texas begins
to shift eastward over the ArkLaTex region this evening as a broad
mid-level trough impinges on the plains. Breezy S/SW-ly winds with
gusts to 35 mph along with very hot conditions are expected tomorrow
as the lee-side trough deepens. Dewpoint temperatures are forecast
to decrease, especially along an axis from Altus to Enid, which
will yield afternoon RH values of 20 to 25 percent. With high
ERC-G values, indicative of dry vegetation susceptible to
increased fire potential, elevated fire conditions are expected
tomorrow across parts of western and central Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

Temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees will be widespread tomorrow
with heat index values up to 110 degrees expected. A Heat Advisory
has been issued for the entire forecast area for Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of an approaching cold front by late afternoon and
into the evening across northwest and northern Oklahoma. Deep, dry
air beneath high cloud bases could foster strong to damaging wind
gusts with these storms, and strong mid-level lapse rates could
also lead to large hail. Frontal timing remains somewhat uncertain:
some of the CAMS point to an earlier ETA (mid-afternoon) while the
synoptic models show a later one (early evening).

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across
northwest and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday night. However, the
severe threat should wane shortly after sunset. The aforementioned
front could stall leading to rain chances across NW/N Oklahoma on
Wednesday. The NAM is the most aggressive and has the front
reaching farther south on Wednesday afternoon (Elk City to Watonga
to Ponca City). While this is seen with a slight decrease in
temperatures over northern Oklahoma with the latest NBM, high
temperatures on Wednesday could be quite a bit lower than what the
blend suggests.

A stronger cold front then pushes into Oklahoma on Thursday
afternoon and moves towards central Oklahoma by Thursday evening.
Thunderstorm chances have trended a bit higher, and there is the
potential of severe storms on Thursday afternoon through late
evening, which could delay/impact firework festivities. There is
some concern of thunderstorm hazards (lightning, hail, damaging
winds, heavy rain) impacting those celebrating outdoors and at
nearby lakes. Would be wise to have contingency plans in place for
this potential scenario.

Rain chances continue Thursday night into Friday with low chances
over the weekend. Highs on Friday are expected to be mostly in
the 80s with temperatures rebounding into the 90s over the
weekend.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue through at least mid-afternoon
tomorrow.

A low-level jet will result in low-level wind shear (LLWS) across
northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) tonight. Winds will veer toward the
south-southwest and become gusty by mid to late tomorrow morning.
These gusty winds will persist until sunset.

There is chance showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold
front may impact northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) late afternoon into the
evening. PROB30s were included to account for this. Elsewhere,
the probability is too low to include in the TAFs (e.g., KCSM and
KPNC). Strong, variable wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, hail,
and brief reductions in visibility are possible in the most
intense storms.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80 102  79 101 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         81 104  80 103 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  80 104  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           78 103  71  94 /   0  30  50  20
Ponca City OK     79 103  76  96 /   0  10  20  20
Durant OK         78 101  79 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10