112
FXUS61 KRNK 252315
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the region on Wednesday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Hot and humid weather is expected through the end of the week,
with a heat index around 100 in the Virginia piedmont on
Wednesday. A chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast
for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

    - Dry and less humid tonight
    - Hot and humid weather returns Wednesday
    - A few strong/severe storms possible Wed afternoon

Have increased clouds based on satellite/webcams as high clouds
increasing along/north of a line from Bristol TN to
Charlottesville, VA. Also increased clouds Wednesday with
expecting convection and some high clouds from upstream storms
moving across the area. Still mix of sun and clouds. Otherwise,
still looking at a dry night, but temperatures may be warmer if
more clouds arrive.

Previous discussion...

Scattered cumulus had developed over the region this afternoon.
This cloud cover will erode with the loss of heating once the
sun sets, but higher clouds from thunderstorms in the Ohio will
spread into the mountains.

As surface high pressure weakens, low level flow becomes southwest
and brings back surface dew points in the 60s and warmer 850 mb
temperatures. The temperature/dew point combination will result
in a heat index from the upper 80s to around 100 Wednesday
afternoon. A bit too much residual cloud cover in the morning
and cumulus development in the afternoon to reach the full
potential of the warmer airmass. Kept the maximum temperature in
the mid to upper 90s in the piedmont.

Bufkit forecast soundings showed Convective Available Potential
Energy in the 1500-2000 J/kg range in the afternoon. Based on the
SPC HREF ensemble...a majority of the thunderstorm development
will be after 18Z/2PM. CSU machine learning and SPC HREF showed
the potential for strong to damaging winds in central northern
Virginia late in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
      As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered storms each afternoon

2: Generally above normal temperatures

A cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday which
will allow scattered showers and storms to form especially in the
Piedmont. This doesn`t have the look of a blockbuster event, but a
few of the storms could have some strong winds. Slightly cooler air
will follow the front with high pressure accompanying it over the OH
valley. This will turn our dominant flow east as we sit on the south
side of the high. Moisture advection will again lead to scattered
showers on Friday, mostly along the ridges and mountains where
orography will give the additional oomph needed to cause organized
convection.

Temperatures won`t be as hot as they were last weekend, but we will
still see temperatures above normal in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
      As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Staying hot through the weekend

2: Front brings more storms Sunday/Monday

On Saturday a subtropical ridge begins to reform itself and take
control of the synoptic pattern. This is a recipe for continued hot
weather. With a Bermuda high also in place to our east, there will
be warm air advection aplenty. Heat indices in the Piedmont and
southside could break over 100F again Saturday  afternoon.

Meanwhile a front will be rounding the northern side of the ridge,
making its passage through southwest VA later on Sunday, potentially
slowing and lingering into Monday. A ridge setup bringing a wave
from northwest to southeast over the East Coast can be indicative of
a potential QLCS. Too far to discuss impacts with any certainty, but
as we get into the forecast time range in which we can analyze it
with high-res models, other indicators will be assessed. Dry high
pressure and a post frontal environment should cool things back down
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 712 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR through the period. Cannot rule out some fog near LWB but
seems cloud cover may keep this from happening so kept it out
for now.

During the day Wednesday an increase at times in mid and high
clouds occurs, with cumulus developing in the afternoon. Storms
are possible in the afternoon, but still not enough confidence
to have in the tafs at this point. BCB/BLF/LWB have the better
chance for storms through 00z/Thu.

Average confidence in ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered thunderstorms with potential MVFR ceiling and
visibility, along with strong wind gusts, are expected Wednesday
into early Thursday morning.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again each
afternoon and evening Thursday through Saturday.

A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG/WP