986
FXUS62 KTBW 101912
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and storms across the area today pushing off to
the ENE with the SW flow in place. A plume of deep tropical
moisture will be lifting up over the area overnight and Tuesday
and align along a stalled frontal boundary in place across south
Florida and a weak upper trough. This then remains in place across
the peninsula, through the end of the week, bringing periods of
rain across the area through the week, with some occasional
embedded thunderstorms. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in
place across the southern half of the area with this several day
period of heavy rainfall. The trough axis shifts west for the
weekend, but enough moisture will remain to allow for scattered to
numerous storms still. Temperatures will be more in the upper 80s
for highs and in the 70s for lows with all of the cloudiness and
rain through the rest of the week. No Flood Watch at this time, as
though high rain totals are expected through the week, the severe
drought in place will allow for some initial good absorption and
can reassess next period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

SW flow will continue through around 02Z, then shift more to the
south for the overnight period and Tuesday. Some scattered showers
and storms will be possible mainly inland and south for this
afternoon, then mainly showers overnight starting 06-07Z as the
plume of tropical moisture starts to lift over the area. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail, but MVFR to IFR will be
possible in heavier showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

SW flow in place today will shift to more southerly overnight,
with tropical moisture lifting over the area and remaining
through the rest of the week along a stalled boundary in place
across south Florida. This will allow for periods of rain with an
isolated occasional thunderstorm for Tuesday through the rest of
the period across the waters, with the greatest coverage across
the southern waters. No headlines are expected, but winds and seas
will be locally higher near the storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Deep moisture moving into the area will bring periods of rain
across the area for Tuesday through the end of the week, with
higher rain chances continuing into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  86  77  86 /  80  90  70  80
FMY  77  84  76  84 /  90 100  90  90
GIF  76  85  74  86 /  70 100  70  90
SRQ  78  87  77  87 /  90 100  80  90
BKV  74  88  73  89 /  70  80  60  80
SPG  79  85  78  87 /  90  90  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana