Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
208 FXUS65 KTWC 222209 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 309 PM MST Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer. High pressure will push temperatures back to well above average this week. && .DISCUSSION...Broad troughiness will give way to a strong ridge of high pressure building in from the west early this week. This will continue our dry conditions, with a quick increase in temperatures to around 10 degrees above average by mid week. That means another batch of 100 degree temperatures for Tucson the second half of the week. Some fluctuations in heights and thicknesses, but the overall ridge over SE AZ pattern will continue into next week as ensemble means suggest negative height anomalies near the west coast upstream and even even stronger downstream over eastern states. The tropical eastern Pacific will likely pick up a storm toward the end of the month, but there`s no real signal that would bring that toward our area with a mean ridge position from the desert southwest through northwest Mexico. && .AVIATION...valid through 23400z. SKC. SFC winds will generally be less than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven throughout the period. Occasional afternoon gust up to 15-18 kts is possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a warming trend. Temps will be 4-10 degrees above average and peak by the end of the week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph with the occasional afternoon gust. Min RHs will range from teens to middle 20s. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson