Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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936 FXUS63 KAPX 191933 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 333 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/thunder chances return Friday - Increasing rain chances later Sunday into Sunday night - Cooler with additional rain chances next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Ridging will continue to fold over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada as a well-defined wave evident on satellite imagery pivots across the northern Great Plains tonight. Said wave will begin to lift toward Hudson Bay Friday morning as associated troughing on the backside works over the Great Lakes. A weak cold front also looks to sweep across the Midwest tonight and work into the Great Lakes on Friday. Forecast Details: Rain/thunder chances return Friday -- Primary focus for the short term period will be the much awaited return of rain chances to northern Michigan on Friday. Favorable ascent collocated with the aforementioned front will support showers and storms to the west of Lake Michigan this evening. This activity is expected to track east with time tonight, but will encounter a less favorable environment with eastward extent. Dry low-level air may make it difficult for any initial precip to reach the ground Friday morning as these showers wane. The best chances for showers and a isolated/scattered storms will come late morning/early afternoon with redevelopment as troughing slides overhead. A narrow corridor of ~500 J/kg MUCAPE with ~30 kts of deep-layer shear in place may support a few strong storms, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Rain/thunder chances will diminish from west to east Friday afternoon into the evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Dare we say a somewhat active pattern is forthcoming. Well, that may end up being overstated but at least there will be periodic chances for rain in the long term. Any leftover showers Friday evening are expected to exit off to our east overnight as drying/subsidence works itself in from the west. Saturday then looks rain free with short wave ridging taking temporary control of the weather picture. Extended guidance is then in fairly good agreement that a cutoff upper level low currently evident on water vapor imagery across central California heads east northeast and links up with moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. This should set the stage for some much needed rainfall to end the weekend (later Sunday into Sunday night). Lots of uncertainty remains for next week. As the tropics likely get more active with a possible system in the Gulf of Mexico, models are all over the place with what happens up this way. There will be chances (slight/low end through the week) but confidence isn`t very high on any of the details (it might not rain much at all next week but it`s too early to make that call). Temperatures will remain warm through Sunday (highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday then the low and mid 70s Sunday) with a cool down back toward normal levels next week (mid 60s to near 70). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the TAF period. After diurnal cu diminishes when daytime heating ceases this evening, cloud cover will spread from west to east across the Great Lakes tonight into Friday. Rain chances will also follow, working into western portions of the area early Friday morning. Best chances for rain and isolated to scattered storms will come late Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Due to relatively low confidence in precise timing of thunder chances at this time, explicit mention of thunder has been excluded from the 18Z TAFs. Otherwise, light south winds will allow for lake breeze formation to push inland this afternoon before going weak/calm tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...DJC