Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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091 FXUS63 KAPX 181054 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 654 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free through the work week - Perhaps rain chances emerge Fri night into Saturday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Pattern/synopsis: High pressure extends west into northern MI. This ridge axis is somewhat further north than 24 hours ago. Weak southerly return flow continues. Forecast: A little bit more in the way of moisture will be drawn northward today. Dew points should not mix out quite as aggressively this afternoon, and we even support a few cu clouds, especially in the se. That`s what passes for excitement today. Adding circa 3f to consensus guidance Max T yesterday ultimately was about 1-2f too warm. So only tacked on 1f today. Highs from near 80f to the mid 80s. If dew points do maintain themselves a little higher, that would result in milder min temps tonight, but also a bit more in the way of fog potential. Lows tonight near 50f thru the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Warm and dry will continue Thursday, with an upper ridge still over much of the central to eastern Great Lakes region. A pattern change is possible staring Friday as a negatively tilted upper closed low over central/southern CA continues to trek to the NE. This will likely help kick off convection over MN Thursday. As convection moves eastward, the upper low will continue to track northward and detach from a weakening surface front. Although forcing isn`t the best, around 20-30kts of shear will exist. Guidance has also been trending up with moisture availability (PWATs in deterministic guidance have doubled over the last few runs to reach 1.5"). Although this seems optimistic, it does result in at least a few hundred J/KG of SBCAPE Friday afternoon and MUCAPE Friday night into Saturday. At this time, ingredients for storms still seem poorly organized and timed (SBCAPE, LL/mid lvl lapse rates, and shear don`t ideally overlap). However, a scenario that could be seen is convection moving in from the west and not dying right after it reaches the CWA line but lingers a little. These chances for rain/storms continue to not show signs of impacts besides possible lightning strikes where fuels have been drying. Temperatures will likely cool Sunday as winds breifly turn northerly. Global ensemble guidance continues to show confidence for more rain and cooler temperatures in the forecast early next week, however exact amounts and timing will continue to be up for debate. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 654 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Shallow ground fog has been noted at PLN and APN early this morning, and there is still a window for that to return thru 13Z or so. Areas of fog/stratus almost totally surround CIU, and restrictions remain possible there early on. Otherwise VFR thru this evening, as warm/quiet wx continues. Fog could be somewhat more extensive tonight, and have MVFR vsbys at all sites but TVC late. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JZ