472
FXUS63 KICT 250830
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low storm chances across far southeast Kansas on Friday.

- Mild to warm conditions expected through the beginning of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The upper trough that passed over the central plains yesterday is
now over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and is beginning to cutoff
from the main upper flow. Meanwhile, a fairly robust and amplified
upper ridge has stalled over the western CONUS. The latter feature
is looking like it`s going to win out in terms of influencing the
area`s weather through the remainder of the week and this
weekend. Let`s dive in.

Drier air, along with a surface ridge, will stall across the region
today will lead to generally warmer conditions today with highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon. Similar conditions are
expected on Thursday as the upper ridge attempts to nudge partially
over the central plains promoting warmer conditions across most
locations. Meanwhile, much further east, Hurricane Helene will
likely be making landfall along the Florida Panhandle and begin
interacting with the upper low that will still be over the
Mississippi River Valley. This interaction may push the upper
low a tad westward, and perturbations within the mid/upper flow
on the western side of this system may allow for some unsettled
weather on Friday across far southeast Kansas. However, it
should be noted that almost all global models have trended
eastward with shower and thunderstorm activity, so it`s not out
of the question that all of the moisture could stay entirely in
Missouri on Friday. Going into the weekend, the upper low
should weaken and move eastward once again which will allow the
strong upper ridge to slide eastward and dominate across the
region from Saturday through the beginning of next week. As a
result, afternoon highs will solidly be in the 80s, and low 90s
cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon across far southern Kansas.
Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the region on
Tuesday, and more fall-like weather appears more favorable by
the first of October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Quiet VFR conditions will prevail across the region the next 24
hours. Light west-northwest winds will gradually become north-
northeasterly by midday, and increase up to 10 kts or so.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK