354
FXUS63 KICT 240607
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
107 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures this week with widespread highs in the low
  to middle 70s.

- Isolated (20-30%) chances for showers Tuesday, then again
  later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a lifting upper jet max
over the Great Lakes as a digging trough is situated over the
Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley as high pressure
settles in over the Southern Plains.

After a quiet day across Kansas today, the upper trough currently
over the northern CONUS is progged to dive into Kansas early Tuesday
morning and provide forcing for isolated and low (20-30%) rain
chances throughout the day. Activity that manages to develop is not
expected to be severe, and coverage to this point looks to be
limited to the I-135 corridor east. Consensus among the global
deterministic suite for now is that the upper trough will then
continue to dive southeast before closing off and spinning over the
Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week and into the
weekend. In the wake of this, generally mild temperatures and dry
conditions are expected across the forecast area. However, mid-level
perturbations coming off the western edge of the circulation may
provide support for continued rain chances - especially in
east/southeast Kansas - later this week.

Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to hint at the
possibility of this upper low retrograding back to the west as
a tropical system arrives in the southeast CONUS. This will
likely lead to continued mild and moist conditions across Kansas
through the weekend if this solution pans out. Stay tuned as
additional details become available in later forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Radiational cooling amidst light winds and moist low-levels will
support widespread dense fog over far eastern and southeast
Kansas overnight into early this morning. LIFR conditions are
likely at the CNU TAF site. Thinking the fog will dissipate by
13-14z.

Meanwhile, shortwave energy approaching from the north will
support a band of light rain showers spreading southeast across
central and eastern Kansas today. Cold air aloft and associated
marginal instability may support a few thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening, capable of localized gusty winds
and brief heavy rain, but for now did not include this threat
in the 06z TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ071-072-
095-096-099-100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK