505
FXUS63 KPAH 010414
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above
  average.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Weak mid level impulses will move northeast across the area
through tonight, as a shortwave trof over the Plains approaches
from the west. The shortwave and associated surface low pressure
system will move across the area Saturday, resulting in a very
high (greater than 80 percent chance) of rain and isolated
storms later tonight through Saturday afternoon. On Saturday
there is a marginal risk for severe storms per the Storm
Prediction Center. Forecast parameters not overly favorable for
severe convection, given weak overall lapse rates. There could
be some downburst winds given the instability and forecast moist
vertical profiles, but mostly non-severe with less than ideal
differential theta-e. We should see PoPs on the decrease later
Saturday through Sunday. However, we will leave some slight
chances in given the unsettled look in a few of the models. It
could end up mostly dry.

Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning
from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving
east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support
our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly
above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses
move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable
environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real
adjustments needed to its output for our forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Cigs will continue to gradually thicken/lower through
the overnight as showers are now increasing in coverage across
the region. The other concern will be MVFR/IFR cigs that will
spread east across all terminals through daybreak. Winds will be
easterly between 5-10 kts.

The most organized showers remain on track to move through
during the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday before
turning more scattered late day. This is when MVFR and possibly
brief IFR vsby reductions will be possible with heavier
downpours combined with low cigs. Have included VCTS mention
Saturday afternoon and evening as a few rumbles of thunder will
become possible with increasing instability. Winds will veer
more to the SE-S between 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.

Model guidance continues to show a very saturated boundary layer
Saturday evening with winds turning light & variable. There is
uncertainty in how quickly the low stratus cigs will scatter out
as they will likely remain in place across a good portion of the
region; however, KCGI/KPAH may return to VFR towards the end of
the TAF period. If clearing were to occur quicker, fog would
then be a concern, but confidence is very low as the more
favorable conditions look to be just off to the west towards the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DW