000
FXUS63 KPAH 250503
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1203 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Upper low early this afternoon was over scntrl KY with showers
continuing to rotate around the system, including from southwest
IN into west KY. Otherwise considerable clouds with temperatures
near to more than 10 degrees below normal. The system will
continue to move away tonight. Will decrease PoPs through this
evening over east sections, dry weather overnight through
Wednesday morning. Our attention then turns to a system currently
over northern Plains. This shortwave will transition to a compact
closed low that should end up over NW Arkansas by Wednesday
evening. Models spread showers over the southwest 1/2 of the CWFA
Wednesday afternoon. It should remain dry over the Evansville
Tri-State area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The aforementioned system will continue to move southeast
Wednesday night, with shower chances continuing over southern and
west sections of the CWFA. There may be some thunder along the
MO/AR, and KY/TN border areas. Not expecting water issues given
modest QPF with this system. Small shower chances continue
Thursday night and Friday as the next upper system follows
fairly quickly, taking a fairly similar track to the previous
upper level energy. After this system passes by, looks like a dry
and warmer weekend and Monday of next week as mid level ridging
builds overhead, ahead of a developing trof over the west U.S. Our
weather could become unsettled after Monday. But confidence too
low to speculate on the details at this time. After favoring the
GFS Wednesday through Friday, we went with a consensus blend for
the rest of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

MVFR ceilings finally clearing out of KOWB in the last hour, which
leaves behind clear skies for the time being over all sites. MVFR
and even IFR fog has already developed in southern Illinois, and
figure that will be a decent bet, especially at KEVV and KOWB
overnight. Guidance has trended more toward a fog scenario tonight
as opposed the very low ceilings. Regardless it looks like at
least IFR conditions will be possible at KEVV and KOWB. I wouldn`t
rule it out at KCGI and KPAH either.

MVFR ceilings are expected in the east in the morning and early
afternoon. As our next storm system approaches a weak surface
low/front develops near the MS River in the vicinity of KCGI and
KPAH in the late afternoon, and the 00Z models develop some
showers near it. Inserted MVFR showers for this for a few hours
before sunset, and then indicated slightly better conditions for
the remainder of the evening. The rain should not reach KEVV or
KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS