920
FXUS64 KTSA 161742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The dissipating remnant H5 center from what was once Francine is
still sitting near/over the Mississippi River on the border of AR
and MS. A mini-trough/deep layer moist axis extends to the north
and west of the center and will slide over western AR today as the
system opens up and slides southeast away from the region for
good. This will yield one more day of rain chances in our area
today before we`re done talking Francine and its remnants. The
best shower chances will be over western AR, tailing off quickly
as you head west into far eastern OK. An isolated lightning strike
or two is also possible. Used CONSShort and CONSMOS to raise
cloud cover with NBM (blended guidance) too conservative in the
near term. The higher cloud cover and glancing influence from the
system to our east will take a degree or two off the daytime
highs, cooler low 80s east with more cloud warmer upper 80s to
near 90 west with less cloud.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Early this morning a mid/upper level area of low pressure was
centered over Southeast Arkansas. Wrapping around the low was an
area of higher vorticity...which combined with moisture also
wrapping around the low were creating scattered rain showers
across Northern/Eastern Arkansas. This vort max along with the
rain showers are expected to spread into Western Arkansas and far
Eastern Oklahoma today as they continue to wrap around the
low...while the low itself sags southward. Marginal instability
this afternoon could allow for a limited thunder potential mainly
across Northwest Arkansas. The vort max is forecast to weaken and
exit the region by evening as the western portion of the area of
low pressure weakens and moves off to the southeast. In
response...the majority of the precip should taper off and exit by
this evening as well. Overall QPF for today should remain light.

Across the rest of the CWA today...partly to mostly cloudy skies
are forecast from west to east as the vort max moves through. In
response...afternoon temperatures look to be slightly cooler with
70s to lower 80s in Northwest Arkansas and mid 80s to around 90
degrees for much of Eastern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Ridge of high pressure that has been just to the west is progged
to move over the CWA Tuesday with a longwave trof across the
Western CONUS. A shortwave remains forecast to eject out of the
trof and into the Plains Tuesday Night and Wednesday with
convection developing over the High Plains as it does so. There
remains a low potential...15-20percent...that the southern portion
of this activity could reach into Northeast Oklahoma early
Wednesday morning in a weakening state. Overall trends for this
potential has decreased over the past few days...though will hold
a slight chance PoP for mainly Osage county Wednesday. Additional
convection may develop again Wednesday afternoon...along a
dryline/remnant outflow from Tuesday night...across Western
Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle. This activity may make a run in a
weakening state toward the CWA Wednesday night...though for now
will keep PoPs just below mentionable criteria west of Highway 75
in Northeast Oklahoma.

The ridge of high pressure moving over the region Tuesday is
forecast to become more amplified Thursday and Friday before the
longwave trof looks to finally move out into the Plains over the
weekend. As the ridge amplifies...the low level thermal ridge is
also expected to expand eastward into the region. Thus...a warming
trend is forecast Tuesday through the week with Thursday and
Friday being the warmest days of the forecast period. Highs in the
low to upper 90s are forecast by the end of the week over the CWA
with heat index values also climbing up around 100 deg Thursday
and Friday afternoons.

Latest model solutions indicate the longwave trof tries to finally
move out into the Plains as a slightly positive tilted area of low
pressure with an associated frontal boundary during the weekend.
Day to day model runs have been slow to move this front through
the CWA...as such with latest runs now hinting at Sunday
night/Monday. In any case...shower and thunderstorm chances look
to return for the weekend with the greater potential across
Northeast Oklahoma...closer to the boundary just to the northwest
of the CWA. Forecast details for this time period will continue to
change/update as we go through the week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A trend toward VFR conditions as clouds scatter is the trend in
the near term across E OK and KFSM. The far NW AR sites may keep
MVFR cigs thru early evening before they scatter out. Short-term
ensemble data (HREF) indicates potential for low clouds and fog
Tuesday morning at the NW AR (more fog) and the E OK (more low
cloud) sites. Used TEMPOs to convey potential for now at the far
NW AR sites, dropping to IFR or blo around daybreak. For the E OK
sites, used TEMPOs to convey MVFR vsby/cig potential, though data
pointed to IFR potential at KMLC. All TAF sites will likely have a
period of MVFR cigs during the morning hours before cigs rise and
scatter toward midday on Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   83  67  88  67 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   87  65  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   90  62  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   81  62  86  61 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   79  62  86  62 /  40  10   0   0
MKO   84  65  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  63  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
F10   86  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  67  86  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30