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344
FXUS61 KCAR 131304
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
904 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the region through tonight. A
cold front will cross the area Friday followed by high pressure
Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will shift south of the
area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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904AM Update...Satellite images show some fair weather cumulus
developing in the west. No major changes to the forecast for
this update.

previous discussion
A more westerly flow aloft is expected with drier and warmer weather
expected today.  After any early morning patchy fog and low clouds
burn off, expect a partly to mostly sunny day across the region.
Afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to near the 80 degree
mark, but it will be several degrees cooler along the coast.

Increasing clouds are expected tonight in advance of an approaching
upper trough and cold front from Quebec. The southerly flow in
advance of the approaching front and increasing clouds will keep
overnight lows tonight in the lower 60s for most of the area. A few
showers are expected to move out of Quebec and into northern areas
after midnight. Latest CAMs not showing much in the way of thunder
potential, although cant totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm
across the crown of Maine. Low stratus will once again be a concern
for Downeast areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be back to our west on Friday morning. Any showers
that moved through overnight will likely have shifted northeast into
New Brunswick and or dissipated by 12z. Given the clouds and
rainfall from overnight not expecting much in the way of instability
over the northwest as front and/or pre-frontal trof looks to move
through by 18z. Best CAPE looks to be in a line from Houlton down
toward Bangor early-mid afternoon but this will depend on how
far marine layer can advance during the morning. Any storms that
can develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds
given the shear expected. SPC has kept southern inland areas in
a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday.

Latest 00z guidance and cams continue to suggest locally heavy
rainfall for Friday night over Downeast as wave of low pressure
moves along quasi-stationary boundary. Cannot rule out tropical
moisture being ingested into nrn stream as it moves acrs Downeast
areas overnight. Model most favorable for this soln continues to be
EC with NAM/GFS and CMC more separated with very little chance of
phasing over our waters. Have continued with idea of around 1 inch
of rainfall from about Bangor Region southward toward the coast.

Showers linger into Saturday morning over southeastern zones with
cooler and drier air following in wake of fropa. Temps will likely
be below normal with highs across the north in the upper 60s and
interior Downeast around 70 degrees.

High pressure begins to build in Saturday night with H5 trof heading
into New Brunswick. Skies will clear with mins possibly dropping
into the 30s over the North Woods with 40s expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a brief cooldown temps will be on the increase on Sunday.
Sunny skies under building ridge will allow max temps to rise just
above normal late in the weekend. H5 high will be setting up over
the Appalachians and into the southeast on Monday with ridge axis
nosing up into the northeast U.S. Temps on Monday will climb to near
80 with u80s/near 90 for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Ensemble means showing 594dm ridge over southern New England on
Wednesday with deterministic EC indicating a 600dm high center over
western NY while CMC shows a 598dm high center over our waters. All
this to say that the heat will be on acrs the area the middle part
of next week though this does not account for any potential ridge
riders we may get moving through.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected into this evening. Low
clouds are once again expected to impact the BGR/BHB terminals
overnight with IFR/LIFR possible.

S wind around 10 kt expected through tonight. LLWS can be
expected at the terminals aft 06Z Friday.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...MVFR/IFR expected with showers over northern Aroostook
terminals. Chance of afternoon thunderstorms for southern
terminals. SSW 5-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

Friday night...Becoming VFR across the north with IFR cigs and
vsbys in locally heavy rain over Downeast terminals. NW 5-10kts.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early Downeast terminals in showers,
improving to VFR in the afternoon. NW 5-15kts.

Saturday night-Monday...VFR. NW 5-15kts into Sunday, becoming
WSW 5-10kts late Sunday night.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels into this evening.
Winds/seas will then begin to increase in the southerly flow
ahead of the front late tonight through Friday, with seas
building to 4-6 ft across the outer waters. Thus, have issued a
Small Craft Advisory beginning late tonight. Visibility will be
reduced at times to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog this morning and
again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Marginal winds gusts Friday morning with stable
conditions over the waters. Seas will be around 4-6 feet over
the outer waters in southerly swell. Seas will remain elevated
into Friday evening before diminishing. Winds and seas remain
below advisory levels into early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/Buster
Marine...TWD/LaFlash/Buster