Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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763 FXUS61 KAKQ 281956 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 356 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity return for Saturday and Sunday. A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning. Ahead of it, strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall are expected. Dry weather is then expected through the middle of next week with additional heat concerns possible for Independence Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... High pressure to the N slid offshore this afternoon and is now centered off the coast of New England. Pretty quiet today with dry weather and scattered to broken CU across the area. Temps have risen into the mid to upper 80s for much of the area, but breezy onshore winds have kept coastal locations cooler. Areas along the coast are showing the low 80s and the Eastern Shore only in the upper 70s so far. Expect another degree or two to be added before the afternoon is over. Cloud cover will temporarily thin out later this evening, then build back in after midnight through sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s for much of the area with lower 70s in the SE and immediately along the bay. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Hot and humid conditions return for the weekend, peaking on Sunday with dangerous heat indices around 105F. - A cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rain on Sunday. Sfc high pressure to the NE slides farther offshore Saturday as low pressure moves into Eastern Canada with its trailing cold front gradually approaching Appalachia. A weak warm front will push north of the area, bringing southerly flow and hot temps. Should be mainly dry Sat, but may see isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area as weak shortwave energy passes through the area. CAMs do show some morning convection along the coast, so have introduced Schc PoPs in the SE. Highs will be in the low 90s. With dewpoints up into the low 70s, heat indices will be in the upper 90s to around 100. Sat night will not offer much relief from the heat with lows in the upper 70s. An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year, at least) will approach the area Sunday, crossing the region Sun night into Monday. Ahead of the front, S/SW flow will allow hot and humid conditions to continue. Cloud cover and potential morning precip could hinder temperatures, but still expecting highs in the low-mid 90s. With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices around 105F are in the forecast. Note that the dew point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than NBM and is more in line with MOS values. While the potential for morning convection exists, the main threat for scattered to numerous storms will be in the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, especially for the SE half of the FA where PWs will approach 2.5". As such, WPC has placed this portion of the area in a Marginal ERO. Instability provided by the heat/humidity along with moderate shear will allow for some storms to be strong to severe, despite the stronger winds aloft being to the N. Thus, there is a slight risk for severe storms for much of the FA (~N of US460) and a Marginal elsewhere. Precip will clear out from NW to SE late Sunday night. Lows will be mid to upper 60s NW for most and the low 70s to the far SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. High pressure fills in behind the front, bringing dry weather through mid week. Relatively cooler temps and much lower dewpoints will bring brief relief from the heat and humidity. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Warming some on Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s, but onshore flow keeps temps a few degrees cooler at the coast. Hot weather returns mid week with highs in the low 90s Wed and mid- upper 90s on the Fourth of July. With dewpoints creeping back toward 70 on Thursday, there is the potential for heat indices over 100. Remaining dry through at least Wed with a chc for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday. . && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... SCT cloud cover is present across the FA this afternoon with cloud bases around 3-4kft. Have seen a few instances of brief MVFR with thicker patches of clouds, but otherwise VFR today. Cloud cover will temporarily scatter out this evening, then build back toward BKN after midnight. Guidance favors MVFR across most TAF sites late tonight into early Sat. Cannot rule out IFR at RIC during the early morning hours. ENE winds will continue to be gusty along the coast through the afternoon. Winds turn to the SE late tonight. High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for today through at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likely Sun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions return for Mon. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy onshore/southerly winds this evening through the weekend. - A period of SCA conditions is very likely on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front. - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday. The secondary cold front is south of the waters this afternoon with high pressure centered south of Long Island. There is still a decent pressure gradient in place, which is resulting in E-NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the marine area. Winds become SE and remain near 15 kt this evening-tonight as the high pushes offshore before becoming SSE on Saturday. Could see a period of low-end SCA conditions on the bay late Sat evening-Sat night as the winds become more southerly and increase to 15-20 kt. Local wind probs show a 40- 70% chc of sustained 18 kt winds between 8 PM Sat-4AM Sun (highest on the mid/upper bay). Winds diminish to 10-15 kt and become SSW by mid to late Sun AM. A decently strong summer cold front looks to approach the area Sunday before crossing the waters from N-S between 4-10 AM Monday morning. Scattered to numerous tstms are expected Sun aftn through the first part of Sun night, which will likely necessitate SMWs (a few of the storms could even produce 50 kt wind gusts). Sub-SCA outside of any storms from Sun-late Sun evening. However, there will be decent cool/dry advection following the cold FROPA Monday morning, which will allow N winds to increase to ~20 kt (with frequent gusts around or just above 25 kt). SCAs will likely be needed for all of the Ches Bay, Lower James, and maybe even the upper rivers/coastal waters. Local wind probs show nearly a 100% chc of sustained 18 kt winds Mon AM, with low (~20%) probs of sustained 25 kt winds. Waves/seas 1-3 ft/2-4 ft this afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft this weekend with 1-3 ft waves. Seas could build to 5 ft S of Cape Charles on Monday following the cold FROPA (with 3-4 ft waves). Sub- SCA waves and seas are expected from Mon night through the middle of next week. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic- coast beaches in the FA through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AM/TMG NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM MARINE...ERI