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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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884 FXUS63 KILX 140153 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 853 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A prolonged period of unseasonably hot weather will continue through next week. Temperatures will range from the middle 80s to middle 90s, with the heat really ramping up Sunday into early next week as heat indices approach 100. - Storm chances (60-80%) return this evening and tonight. Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, large hail up to baseball size, and heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A couple updates with forecast this evening primarily due to thunderstorm chances along with new thunderstorm watch further east to include Champaign, Douglas, Coles and Shelby counties until 1 am. Severe thunderstorm watch continues until 10 pm from McLean, DeWitt, Logan and Sangamon counties west. Though severe wx risk appears to be shifting east of Knox, Fulton, Mason and Cass counties. Developing MCS over northern MO and into central IL at mid evening has been producing some severe winds and hail over parts of the IL river valley, primarily north of Bloomington and Peoria and west of I-55. Frequent lightning also observed in central and eastern parts of Marshall, Woodford and McLean counties and just south of Scott and Morgan counties. Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1.5-2 inches along and north of Taylorville to Danville line also giving locally heavy rain threat and localized flooding possible along with ongoing severe wx threat into early overnight over central IL. Latest CAMs shifting convection se during overnight as it gradually diminishes in strength and coverage as it moves into southeast IL during overnight. Lows overnight in the mid 60s over the IL river valley and upper 60s from I-55 southeast with southeast IL near 70F. 07 && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Severe convection is still expected this evening and into tonight across parts of the area. Large hail and damaging winds are still expected with these storms as CAM models have been forecasting since last night. Storms should develop north and west of the CWA and then move into the CWA in the next several hours, thinking as early as 5-6pm. Models do have convection diminishing as it moves east and southeast, but some concern that the models are not picking up on the cold pool that is expected to develop as the MCS develops and then move east to southeast through the evening. The front, along with the convection will move through the CWA tonight and should be east and southeast of the area after midnight. Tomorrow should be clear skies, well behind the front with lighter winds as high pressure builds into the upper midwest. These lighter winds and slightly cooler conditions will continue into tomorrow night. Auten .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The main focus in the extended is the heat. Though temps will still be on the warm side Sat, dwpts will be cool enough that heat indicies will not be an issue. However, temps and dwpts will increase starting on Sunday and continue into the middle of next week. This will push HIs into the 100-105 range for those three days. Any heat headlines will be considered later as there could be some changes based on forecasted cloud cover. Precip chances through the extended period will not be that high but some slight chances do show up in some periods. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A complex of storms over west central IL will continue to move east this evening. Timed the cluster of storms for a 2 hour tempo group for lower cigs and higher winds for this evening at PIA and BMI, but went for 3hrs for SPI, DEC, CMI...also lower cigs with higher winds. After the precip moves out of the sites, broken cigs around 8kft are expected through the overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, expecting light and variable winds as a high pressure ridge builds into the area. Also expecting clear skies tomorrow through most of the day due to drier conditions. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$