![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
163 FXUS62 KJAX 291200 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Area of high cloudiness and possible sprinkles across ne FL will spread slowly southward while gradually diminishing later this morning. Otherwise will see scattered showers/isolated t-storms develop by midday, becoming numerous across ne FL during the afternoon. No significant changes to forecast planned in update. Current high temperature forecast Today looks fine. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 100-105 range. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Anomalously high moisture continues over the area with PWAT values remaining around 2 inches the past few days, and relatively warm temps aloft with 500 mb temps at about -6C. Low level flow remains light south and the 925 mb ridge is across the southern FL peninsula. The ridge will lift a bit northward today and allow the Atlantic sea breeze to push further inland. Thus, anticipate the bulk of the higher rain chances today to shift a bit further west, and still have rain chances around the 60-80 percent range, with the best chances over inland northeast FL. The main area of more concentrated storms may be around and just west of the Highway 301 corridor. Afternoon MLCAPE of about 1500-2000 J/kg appears likely. The main threats with any of the storms will be gusty downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall/localized flooding, given the higher PWATs and dewpoints. We can`t rule out an isolated, brief severe storm today given the high instability, but shear values, as is typical for summer, remains low. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, with upper 80s near the coast, and giving heat indices of about 105, below heat advy criteria. Tonight, scattered convection expected mainly in the evening hours and should diminish after midnight. There will likely remain a threat of a couple of showers or even a t-storm after midnight as a trough of low pressure across GA and low level convergence supports precip chances. Lows tonight expected in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Pattern for deep-layer moisture will continue into the end of the weekend with stronger diurnal convection expected to develop in conjunction with the afternoon sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and areas of collision. Predominant PWAT levels will range between 2 and 2.5 inches through the period, resulting in increased chances for storms with heavy localized rainfall. High temperatures for this period will rise into the mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas along the shoreline with a potential for Heat Advisory conditions during the day on Sunday with heat index values rising up to 110 degrees in some areas. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A cold front will press down from out of the north at the beginning of next week and then stall in the vicinity of Georgia before Wednesday. The drier air mass along with high pressure ridging will result in drier conditions starting by midweek. The pattern of building diurnal convection will carry into this period with convective developments associated with sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision becoming more inhibited later in the week as PWAT and humidity values decrease. Daily high temperatures are expected to experience a warming trend next week with max temps rising into the upper 90s by the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions expected through midday, then scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will develop around TAF sites, with greatest coverage in the 17z-21z period, with isolated activity continuing through 00z. Lower conditions and gusty winds expected around TSRA. Light W to S winds expected Today, shifting to SE with passage of east coast sea breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Winds will remain southerly through the rest of the weekend, with enhanced winds from the southeast to south during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breeze develops. Seas of about 2-3 ft will prevail. Some stronger southerly winds expected Monday and Tuesday to about 10-15 kt, possibly a bit stronger in the late aftn. Should see a weak cool front move down from the north to south late Tuesday and into Wednesday, with flow transitioning to southeast and east by Wednesday. Rip Currents: Another low-end moderate risk of rip currents of with surf near 2 ft today and Sunday, with 2 ft wind-sea from the east-southeast at 9-10 seconds and a 1-2 ft wind wave at 4 seconds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 75 95 76 / 60 30 70 40 SSI 90 78 90 78 / 60 30 60 30 JAX 93 75 93 76 / 70 30 70 30 SGJ 91 75 92 76 / 70 40 80 30 GNV 91 73 92 73 / 80 40 80 30 OCF 92 75 92 75 / 80 40 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$