085
FXUS64 KMEG 230914
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
414 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Unsettled weather will begin this afternoon as a cold front moves
into the region. A few strong thunderstorms are possible this
evening with gusty winds and hail. An upper level low pressure
system will remain over the Mid-South through late week and
result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Each day
will feature below normal temperatures with medium to high chances
for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The latest surface analysis places a 1012mb low over western
Arkansas with a cold front extending southwest through central
Texas. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is churning over
Nebraska. A leading weak perturbation, embedded in southwest flow,
is translating through central Arkansas at this hour. A few light
showers are noted on radar, mainly along the Tennessee and
Kentucky border.

The aforementioned trough will slowly deepen and phase with a
northern stream shortwave through Tuesday. Appreciable height
falls will occur late this afternoon and into the evening and
spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north
of I-40. A few of the storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. The threat
window will remain limited to late afternoon through early
evening, as instability will wane quickly.

The trailing cold front will slowly cross the Mississippi River
on Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, instability will increase
to around 2000 J/kg, mainly across portions of west Tennessee and
north Mississippi. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
along and slightly ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon before it
crosses the Tennessee River late Tuesday night. Gusty winds
appear to be the main threat as mid level lapse rates are rather
poor around 6 C/km.

The front will become orphaned just to our east by Wednesday
afternoon as the parent low lifts into Quebec. Cloudy conditions
and cooler temperatures will persist across the region as an upper
low moves overhead and stalls.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain over the Mid-
South Thursday and into the weekend as the upper low interacts
with a tropical system coming north out of the Gulf of Mexico.
The track and intensity of the tropical system still remains a bit
uncertain, however, a good signal for heavy rainfall is
materializing. The latest WPC 5 day QPF shows a range of 3 to 5
inches across much of the Mid-South. The pattern looks to remain
unsettled through the long range forecast as the upper low remains
stalled over the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the
airspace Monday afternoon, lasting into the overnight hours. Kept
PROB30 groups in at all sites, though exact impacts to each
terminal may vary based on where storms develop. Late Monday
evening, MVFR CIGs may impact MEM and JBR. Otherwise, expect light
ESE winds through the period.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS