568
FXUS62 KMFL 251628
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1228 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...


.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Models depict a rather typical summertime weather pattern continuing
across SoFlo through the rest of today and tomorrow, with afternoon
convection being mainly driven by sea breeze and outflow boundaries.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day,
driven by advection of moisture from the caribbean and E GOMEX.
Latest model PWATs remain slightly over 2 inches over SoFlo, which
combined with daytime heating and weak lifting aloft will result in
some strong storms in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze boundaries
will again become focal points for initial convection as the
generally westerly flow collides with the east coast sea breeze.

With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW,
expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first
developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this
afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas. The
strongest cells will be capable of producing frequent lightning and
gusty winds.

Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today
and tomorrow, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight
lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and
upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Overall, the weather pattern of hot days and diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the long term
period. In the mid-levels, weak troughing will linger over the
region through Friday, sitting in a lull between two ridges over
the South-Central US and eastern Caribbean, as well as troughing
over the US eastern seaboard. Over the weekend, the mid-level
troughing will be gradually pushed out as the mid-level ridging
builds and shifts east over the northern Gulf states.

With this synoptic setup, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Low-level winds will be out of the
southwest through Friday, keeping the pattern of convection
initiating along sea-breeze boundaries before moving over the
interior and East Coast metro during the afternoon and early
evening. By this weekend, winds will flip to out of the southeast,
shifting the convective pattern to focus over the interior and
Gulf Coast during the afternoon. Overall weak winds in the low to
mid levels will continue to result in slow storm motions and
localized flooding concerns for areas that are hit repeatedly or
have poor drainage. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely
reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching
the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the weekend.
Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the mid 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Periods of MVFR/IFR are likely this afternoon and through around
21-22Z as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
area. Light and variable winds will be SSE to SW at 8-10kt through
the rest of the afternoon hours, with the east coast sea breeze
making flow erratic at times over the Atlantic terminals. Winds
will again become light and variable after 26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak southwesterly winds will become moderate this afternoon and
remain in place through the rest of the work week. Boating
conditions will remain benign in general with seas 1-2 feet,
except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  92 /  50  70  30  60
West Kendall     75  91  74  92 /  40  60  20  50
Opa-Locka        77  91  76  93 /  50  70  30  60
Homestead        76  90  76  91 /  40  60  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  91 /  50  70  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  77  91 /  50  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  93  78  94 /  50  70  30  60
West Palm Beach  76  91  76  92 /  50  70  30  60
Boca Raton       76  91  76  92 /  50  70  30  60
Naples           79  89  79  90 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...17
LONG TERM....CULVER