847
FXUS62 KMHX 220545
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
145 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through eastern North Carolina over
the next 24 hours, with high pressure moving in behind it by
Monday. Next potential frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at
least the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Sat...A quiet picture perfect evening across ENC
with comfortable temps and dry weather. Convection over west
central Virginia, supported by a short wave, will make a run at
our area after midnight. While model trends continue to show
this area weakening as it approaches, most are in good agreement
it will at least clip our far northwest, in places like
Williamston, Greenville and maybe as far south as Kinston or
Kenansville. Increased chances for rain here to high chance,
which matches our previous QPF forecast well. Closer to the
coast we may see an increase in mid and high clouds but we
should remain dry with rain chances remaining only over far
inland locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat... The aforementioned shortwave will be making
its way across ENC on Sunday which should help spark a few
isolated to widely scattered showers across the area. Continued
Schc PoPs with this update, opting to not go higher as we have a
lack of upper level support. Kept Tstorms out of the forecast
Sunday, as upper level subsidence keeps the mid levels very dry,
and it will be difficult for updrafts to punch through this dry
layer with CAPEs of only 500-1000 J/kg. Temps once again get
into the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...A slight chance of showers Sunday, then
ridging starts building in from the north as a low spins up
offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting further offshore
to our east. Seasonable temps through the period and dry Monday-
Tuesday evening. Rain chances increase mid to late week as
ridging could weaken and a low treks across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region.

Monday-Tuesday:
Low offshore could produce high swell impacting OBX beaches
Monday-Tuesday. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more
information.

High pressure centered over Maine and the Canadian Maritimes
has a ridge extending south over much of the east coast, keeping
us dry Monday and Tuesday. Seasonable temps with highs in the
low 80s inland, upper 70s to near 80 for beaches.

Wednesday-Friday:
Uncertainty increases a lot towards the middle and end of next
week, as multiple synoptic features will be at play and slight
deviations result in large changes with the forecast. While
ridging continues to spread over ENC from the north Wednesday, a
low pressure system forecasted to be over the Great Lakes will
have a cold front trailing from it extending down to the Gulf
coast. This cold front could stall to our west due to the
ridging over us, or the ridge weakens and gives way to the low,
or the front sweeps north of us around the high. In addition to
the parent low over the Great Lakes and ridge overhead, we will
be keeping an eye on a tropical system that could initiate in
the Gulf Coast next week. It is too soon to determine what
impacts, if any, we receive in ENC should this cyclone form. Due
to all this uncertainty, I opted to keep PoPs at Chc/Schc for
now through the remainder of the long term as a higher moisture
advection regime is more supportive of rain at the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Monday/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

 - Sub VFR CIGs possible at times over the next 24 hrs (30-50%
   chance)

Weakening SHRA and TSRA, associated with a weak surface low and
warm front, will continue to push south through central NC over
the next several hours. These SHRA may clip far western
sections of ENC, and I`ve continued to advertise this potential
at KOAJ, KISO, and KPGV. It appears the greatest TSRA risk
overnight will remain just to the west of ENC. Close to sunrise
Sunday morning, recent short-term guidance suggests there may be
a renewed area of SCT SHRA that develops across portions of
ENC. Confidence in this is low, so no mention in the TAFs for
now. During the day Sunday, a cold front will move south through
the area. Despite drying conditions aloft, there may be just
enough lift, moisture, and instability to produce isolated SHRA
and TSRA. Because of the expected low coverage, I`ll hold off on
introducing any SHRA or TSRA mention yet in the TAFs. Behind
the front, a cooling and moistening northeasterly flow may lead
to a period of sub-VFR CIGs.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 1030 PM Sat... High pressure ridging down into the
Carolinas will keep winds light across our waters with winds
generally persisting at 5-10 kts coming from a NE`rly direction
north of Cape Hatteras and becoming light and variable at times
south of Cape Hatteras through tonight. Winds will then
gradually increase from north to south Sun afternoon to 10-15
kts and become NE`rly across all our waters as a surface
boundary gradually makes its way across the area. Otherwise 4-6
ft seas are currently noted north of Ocracoke Inlet with 2-4 ft
seas south of Ocracoke Inlet. Seas are forecast to lower north
of Oregon Inlet tonight to 3-5 ft and as a result have shortened
the SCA advisory here to 06Z tonight, though will have to
reissue SCA`s tonight for the same area as seas are forecast to
then quickly come back up to 4- 7 ft by Sun night. Otherwise
ongoing SCA`s across our central waters will continue as 4-6 ft
seas will persist through Sun north of Ocracoke Inlet. SOuth of
Ocracoke inlet 2-4 ft seas will persist through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...SCA In Effect through 6Z Tuesday for
coastal waters north of Ocracoke.

Sustained variable winds around 10 kt Sunday with ridging
building in, then around 15 kt Monday before dropping back down
to 5-10 kt and veering to become more easterly Tuesday and
Wednesday. SCA in effect for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet as
waves greater than or equal to 6 ft are expected from the low
offshore through early next week. Seas will be 2-6 ft Sunday,
and 2-7 ft Monday/Tuesday before dropping down to 2-6 ft
Wednesday the low offshore and somewhat gusty winds result in
higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will
be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape
Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height
ranges. OBX (particularly north of Hatteras) and the Gulf Stream
will not be protected and will see the higher values in the
ranges above.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Sat... No real changes to the forecast thinking as
coastal flooding will continue to be a threat given the higher
than normal astronomical tide cycle through this weekend and
into Monday during high tide each day. Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in effect for all oceanside coastal areas into Monday
evenings high tide. Increased swell from a low offshore may
bring minor overwash concerns Tuesday and into midweek for the
OBX north of Cape Hatteras, although recent guidance has backed
off some on the strength of this offshore low, which may lessen
the risk of coastal impacts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...EH/RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX