186
FXUS63 KMKX 170208
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions expected for the start of the week with
  temps and heat indices in the 90s. Hottest temps and heat
  indices are likely during the day Monday.

- There will be daily thunderstorm chances through the week due
  to the warm and humid conditions.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Convection is attempting to initiate over nw WI where outflow
boundaries and a slow moving cold front are present. The
pressure field and cold front will continue to weaken tnt over
said region, while there is a lack of upper dynamics to aid any
convection. Isold to scattered convection may occur there tnt,
but do not expect it to organize into a MCS that could then
affect srn WI during the overnight.

Much farther to the west over NE and wrn IA, the nose of a low
level jet and warm, moist advection is expected to initiate
widespread convection over said region and into SD and MN.
Multiple MCS`s may occur and track enewd through the night into
Mon AM. It is possible decaying convection and outflow
boundaries could drift into south central WI during the Mon AM
daylight hours. This will ultimately determine coverage of
convection for later Mon AM into the afternoon, but overall
20-30 percent chances for storms is the forecast for Mon. As
long as widespread cloud cover and storms remain to the west
and north, a hot and humid day is expected for Mon.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

Main concern or this afternoon and evening is the strong to severe
thunderstorm potential as the MCV across eastern IA/northwestern IL
tracks northeast. While the ongoing convection is undercut by
the outflow racing ahead of it, thinking there will be
redevelopment ahead of it as the outflow loses it steams as it
pushes into south- central WI. Redevelopment looks to fueled by
the environment which has destabilized with SBCAPE north of
2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 25-30 knots. If any
storms can get going and grow upscale, the environment is
supportive of damaging winds threat along with a hail threat. In
addition to the outflow boundary, can see hints of an effective
warm front boundary on MKX radar strewn across southern WI
along with a stalled lake breeze near the lakeshore in
Racine/Kenosha counties. Thus, severe thunderstorm or two will
be possible through the evening as this activity pulls through
the area this evening with the main concern being damaging
winds. However, if any storms do interact with any of these
boundaries, cannot rule out a brief spin up if things align just
right. The main area of concern to see strong to severe storms
will be along the WI/IL border north along the I-94/HWY-18
corridor. Potential should decrease through the evening.

Could see additional shower and thunderstorm chances glance our
northern CWA overnight as the upstream convection develops and
pushes eastward ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough.  Less
confident on seeing this activity make it into our area, but the
potential still remains.

Life threatening waves and currents continue resulting in high
swim risk through this evening for Lake Michigan beaches in
Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties, while moderate swim risk remains
in place for Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha counties. Conditions
should improve overnight as waves and winds subside a bit.

Otherwise, looking to continue with the hotter and humid conditions
for Monday as we sit under the western peripheral of the upper-level
ridge. Looking at daytime temps in the upper 80s and 90s and even
hotter heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. While we will near heat
advisory levels, think we will generally remain below threshold
at this time, but still need to exercise caution if outdoors or
exposed to the heat. Overnight temps are looking very warm as
well with lows only dipping into the lower 70s.

Additionally cannot rule out a few pop-up isolated showers/
thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. While there is not a real
discernible forcing mechanism to trigger the storms at this
time, cannot ignore the ample moisture (dewpoints in the
60s/70s) and instability (SBCAPE +20000 J/kg) available. The
main forcing mechanism that could potential trigger a storm or
two would likely be from a lingering boundary from overnight
convection tracking across the area, but difficult to tell if
and where this may occur.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Heat and humid conditions will continue Tuesday into Wednesday with
daily low-end shower/storm chances. A cold frontal boundary looks to
gradually push southward through WI during the day Wednesday into
Thursday, which will be enough forcing along with a right entrance
region of an upper-level jet for the increased shower/thunderstorm
chances. The frontal boundary is trending on stalling across the
area through the end of the week bringing additional precipitation
and storm chances.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions tnt-Mon evening. Sct040 cumulus for Mon
afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Modest southerly winds will prevail tonight through Monday night.
Another low pressure area will then track from the northern Great
Plains into northern Ontario Tuesday into Tuesday night with
breezy south winds over Lake Michigan. A cold front will then
slowly move southward across the lake Wednesday into early
Thursday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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