877
FXUS62 KTBW 250001
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
801 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Deep moisture and weak steering flow allowed for scattered showers
and storms to develop this afternoon, moving mainly along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries. Early evening IR satellite and KTBW
radar imagery is showing a line of storms oriented along the sea
breeze collision from central Florida through southwest Florida,
slowly moving west. High resolution models are in good agreement
that this convection should gradually dissipate over the next few
hours with the loss of solar heating, with mostly rain free
conditions expected by midnight. Weak westerly flow will then
allow a few showers or storms to develop over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the late evening and early morning hours,
potentially pushing into the coast in some spots before sunrise.

A few adjustments were made to the rain chances for the next few
hours to keep up with radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks
on track, and no other changes are planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A line of thunderstorms is slowly pushing west through the area
along the sea breeze collision, with a few area terminals
continuing to see flight category disruptions while storms pass
overhead. Mainly rain free and VFR conditions should fill in by
around 02z. Weak westerly flow on Tuesday will favor showers and
storms developing over the Gulf waters in the early morning,
potentially pushing into southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and
KPGD after around 09z. More widespread convection should develop
along the coast after around 16-19z, shifting east and inland
through the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Storms are starting to form along the coast line currently on both
coastlines. These showers will start to move inland over the next
few hours. As we get into the evening hours these storms should
start to head back west as they dissipate. Once again our main
concern today will be the slow motion of the storms and the
possibility of some localized flooding.

We will have about the same conditions set up for our Tuesday.
However the ridge will start to shift south on Wednesday bringing us
a more southwest flow across the areas. This will push most of the
shower activity inland and towards the east coast of Florida. These
should be the drier days along the West Coast of Florida.

As we look into the weekend the ridge start to move north. This will
give us more neutral flow on Saturday giving us shower coverage
very similiar to what we just saw last weekend. By Sunday the
ridge should be to our north and giving us a more East to
Northeast flow. This flow regime typically gives us less storm
coverage but the storms that do form tend to be near the west
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Our southerly winds that we have been experiencing over
the weekend and today will start to shift westerly overnight and
remain that way through Thursday. Winds speeds will generally stay
at or below 10 knots. The main marine hazard through the period
will be overnight and early morning showers and thunderstorms that
should form along the land breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the
weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  91 /  50  70  40  70
FMY  75  90  78  91 /  50  70  30  70
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  30  70  30  70
SRQ  77  90  78  91 /  40  70  40  70
BKV  74  92  74  92 /  40  70  40  70
SPG  80  90  82  91 /  50  60  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley