205
FXUS65 KABQ 032011
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
211 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Slow moving thunderstorms will threaten flash flooding on recent
  burn scars and areas that received heavy rain yesterday,
  including the Ruidoso area and Seven Cabins burn scars, into
  this evening.

- Scattered strong thunderstorms over southeastern New Mexico will
  threaten frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail this
  afternoon into the evening.

- Scattered weak showers and isolated dry thunderstorms over west-
  central to southwestern New Mexico will threaten strong and
  erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface moisture, per dewpoint obs, pushed to and even beyond the
Continental Divide overnight, with dewpoints at KFMN rising into
the lower 40s F this morning. However, this moisture is
relatively shallow, with PW analyzed on SPC mesoanalysis running
0.45-0.60" in that area and dewpoint at KGUP mixing out to the
mid-20s as of this writing. Upshot is that, despite scattered to
numerous coverage, western NM will see a mix of wet and dry
storms (mostly dry north of the Gila NF) the rest of the
afternoon. Further east, storms are still hugging the higher
terrain of the central mountain chain, with a Flash Flood Warning
recently issued for the burn scar area near Ruidoso. This is amid
light flow aloft, which is mitigating the threat of severe storms
vs. yesterday, while also making for slow and erratic storm
motions. A moisture gradient exists over eastern NM, with PW
increasing from 0.8 in the Sacramento Mts. to nearly 1.2 inches
along the TX border. Storms will be a bit slow to move off the
high terrain today, but CAM guidance (e. g., HRRR and RRFS)
eventually congeal this activity into a more coherent line/
broken line which moves out into the eastern Plains this evening,
gradually pushing toward the southeast. Storms could last until
around 10pm-12 midnight, with locally heavy rainfall in this area
highlighted with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from WPC.
Areas such as Roswell and those which picked up 1-3 inches of
rainfall yesterday (pockets of Chaves, Roosevelt, and Curry/Quay
counties) will need to be monitored for minor flooding impacts if
storms trek over those same areas this evening.

Thursday brings an overall downtick in convective coverage and
intensity, as a 500mb ridge axis begins nosing into western NM
with an attendant decrease column mean RH. That being said, there
really isn`t strong westerly flow to flush the moisture out.
Storms should mainly be confined to the central mountain chain and
southwestern mountains and may struggle to move into the lower
elevations. Will hold off on another Flood Watch for the burn scar
areas in Lincoln County, though this is somewhat dependent on how
much rain ultimately falls on them today. Both NBM and RRFS probs
for >0.5" are only in the 15-25% range, so will let the evening
shift take another look.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Only a subtle change in the weather pattern from Thursday to
Friday. An upper-level low which is currently just off of Baja
California will have progressed into central Chihuahua state, with
the aforementioned mid-level ridging poking further into northern
NM. Some moisture lingers in southeastern NM, but isolated to
scattered coverage of storms should again mainly be confined to
the mountainous areas. Max temperatures also trend up a few
degrees most all areas. On Saturday, this low weakens as it lifts
up through the Permian Basin to the Panhandles region. Modest
northwest flow on the backside of this feature brings another
uptick on convection over the northern mountains and perhaps the
eastern Plains, where the CSU machine learning progs even hint at
a small chance of severe storms along the TX border...though
overall flow aloft remains fairly weak.

PoPs finally dwindle to negligible across the Land of Enchantment
by Sunday as a short-wave ridge exists overhead. Afternoon max
temps continue their climb as well, with low-mid 90s in the ABQ
Metro and upper 90s in the Chaves County plains. Heat continues
building into Monday, where LREF H5 heights reach the 80-90th
percentile for early June. NBM has ROW hitting 100F on Monday,
with pockets of Moderate Heat Risk showing up there and in the RGV
Monday and Tuesday.

The forecast gets a bit murkier from Tuesday into the middle of
the next week, as models and ensembles vary on the orientation and
latitude of the base of a significant trough in the Pacific NW.
GFS shows a wetter solution with a plume of moisture moving up on
SSW flow, while the ECMWF has more of a westerly mid-level wind
component, for drier and breezier conditions. Blended guidance of
isolated to widely scattered PoPs, mainly over the mountains,
seems reasonable for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Convective hazards will be in play for all of the terminals except
KFMN over the next 9-12 hours. KGUP could see either wet or dry
thunderstorms in the vicinity with associated brief wind gusts up
to 40KT. Relatively highest confidence for direct storm impacts
are at KSAF late afternoon into early evening and at KROW from
about 03-06Z, as storms move off the central mountain chain and
congeal into a more organized band, per recent runs of the HRRR
and RRFS. Medium confidence for KROW to see at least a brief
period of MVFR visibility with potential for a cell with heavy
rain to move overhead within this band.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next seven days, though there are a few points of concern. Dry
storms today and Thursday, especially over the Northwest Plateau
West Central Mountains, will pose a risk for new fire starts from
lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions have a
moderate chance of developing in the same area by Saturday and
Sunday, as 20-foot westerly breezes of 10-15 mph overspread
minimum RHs of 10-15% and ERCs around the 90th percentile, per
SWCC analysis. Forecast uncertainty increases significantly beyond
Monday, as model difference point to either a drier/breezier
pattern continuing or a return of thunderstorm chances,
particularly along the central mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  91  55  94 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  42  86  44  89 /   5  10   5   5
Cuba............................  49  84  52  86 /  20  10   5   5
Gallup..........................  46  87  49  89 /   5   5   0   5
El Morro........................  48  82  51  85 /  10  10   5  10
Grants..........................  48  86  51  88 /  10  10   5  10
Quemado.........................  49  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   5
Magdalena.......................  54  80  57  84 /  20  20  10   5
Datil...........................  50  79  52  83 /  20  20  10   5
Reserve.........................  46  87  47  91 /  20  30  10  10
Glenwood........................  49  90  50  94 /  30  50   5  20
Chama...........................  41  79  43  82 /   5  20   0  20
Los Alamos......................  54  79  56  84 /  40  30   5   5
Pecos...........................  47  82  49  84 /  50  20   5  40
Cerro/Questa....................  48  79  51  83 /  20  20  10  10
Red River.......................  40  71  43  74 /  20  20  10  10
Angel Fire......................  40  75  43  78 /  20  30  10  20
Taos............................  46  82  49  85 /  20  20  10  10
Mora............................  46  79  48  82 /  30  30  10  30
Espanola........................  53  88  55  92 /  30  10   5   5
Santa Fe........................  54  82  56  84 /  40  10   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  51  84  54  87 /  40  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  88  63  91 /  30   5   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  89  60  92 /  30   5   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  91  60  94 /  30   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  90  61  93 /  30   0   5  10
Belen...........................  56  90  58  93 /  20   5   5   5
Bernalillo......................  58  90  61  93 /  30   5  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  54  90  57  93 /  30   5   5   5
Corrales........................  59  91  61  94 /  30   5  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  56  90  59  93 /  20   5   5   5
Placitas........................  58  86  61  89 /  40   5  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  58  90  61  93 /  30   0  10  10
Socorro.........................  60  90  62  93 /  20   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  82  56  85 /  40  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  53  83  55  86 /  40  10   5  10
Edgewood........................  50  84  53  87 /  40  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  85  50  87 /  40  10  10  20
Clines Corners..................  50  80  52  82 /  50  20  10  30
Mountainair.....................  50  82  53  85 /  40  20   5  30
Gran Quivira....................  51  79  53  82 /  40  20   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  57  80  59  82 /  40  20   5  30
Ruidoso.........................  52  74  53  76 /  50  60   5  50
Capulin.........................  45  79  48  82 /  30  30  10  20
Raton...........................  47  83  49  87 /  20  20  10  20
Springer........................  49  83  50  86 /  30  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  48  80  50  83 /  50  30  10  30
Clayton.........................  53  84  55  86 /  30  10  10  10
Roy.............................  51  81  52  84 /  40  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  56  87  58  89 /  60   5  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  53  84  55  86 /  60  10  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  57  87  59  89 /  60   5  10  10
Clovis..........................  57  84  58  85 /  70  10  10   5
Portales........................  57  85  58  86 /  70  10  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  56  84  57  86 /  60   5   0  10
Roswell.........................  59  85  60  86 /  60  10  10   0
Picacho.........................  54  81  55  83 /  50  50  10  10
Elk.............................  53  80  53  82 /  50  60   5  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53-Schroeder
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...53