694
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Along and east of the central mountain chain, storms will be
  capable of turning severe with large hail and damaging winds
  each afternoon and evening through Thursday.

- A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop
  with storms over northeast and east central areas through Thursday.

- Near to record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat
  impacts and heat related illnesses each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure is sitting atop NM, and per the 18Z sounding the 500
mb heights were at 598 decameters, which looks to be a daily
record. This will keep hot temperatures in place, although the
moisture that we do have in place (PWAT of 1.04 inch on the 18Z
sounding) will help moderate temperatures slightly. Outside of the
northeastern zones, blended guidance has reduced POPs
considerably for many areas today and Tuesday, however we have
not fully bought into this given available moisture and
instability. Coverage will certainly be more sparse over western
zones and the east central plains, but there is still a non-zero
chance unlike what much of the guidance suggests. Slow movement
will also persist, making it hard for cells to propagate off of
the high terrain this afternoon. Weak perturbations are still
sliding eastward over CO, and a cooler, moist surface boundary
resides over far eastern CO and KS. These will all eventually
assist with convective production (and perhaps strong to severe
cells) near the NM-CO border which will likely send some outflow
southward into our eastern plains tonight. The more vigorous
storms are modeled to dissipate through the evening with a few
showers persisting, mainly in northeastern zones through the early
morning.

The aforementioned outflow will have provided a slight uptick in
dewpoints over the eastern plains by Tuesday morning, and some
easterly upslope flow would also likely follow into the early
afternoon Tuesday. This would allow storms to develop more easily
over eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristos and central
highlands. This will also offer a larger spatial area of deeper
directional shear, increasing the strong to severe storm potential
for eastern zones. Temperatures would remain hot, but would
likely run a degree or two lower than today`s readings in the
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure will reposition toward the AZ-NM border, south of
I-40 on Wednesday with heights reducing by a couple of decameters.
Tuesday`s storms will have sent moist outflows westward beyond the
Rio Grande while the backdoor frontal airmass continues to hold
ground over the southern plains. This scenario will continue to
provide a favorable environment for strong to severe storms, just
about anywhere east of the central mountain chain on Wednesday.
The latest REFS QPF mean is boasting some heftier rainfall totals
near and just east of the central mountain chain while the
Continental Divide also is shown to host more storms Wednesday.

Wednesday`s convection will likely be the main determinant for
Thursday`s activity, meaning the extent of moisture from
Wednesday outflows and the subsequent wind components will dictate
the most likely areas to observe convective initiation. The
backdoor frontal boundary does look like it might start to relax
and wash out in NM late in Thursday, but if the upslope
southeasterly flow east of the central mountain chain can survive,
a healthier dose of storms will follow. West central to
southwestern areas should still observe a healthy coverage of
storms on Thursday too, even with the upper high being stronger
in that area.

The high would potentially begin to nudge back northeastward
slightly on Friday with storm coverage being a bit more subdued
due to reliance on moisture recycling. Into the weekend, tropical
storm activity continues to be modeled in the far eastern Pacific
with westward headings that will pose no direct impacts to NM.
However, the upper high does appear to sidestep eastward. This
would open the door to southwesterlies aloft that could yield a
more traditional monsoon plume of moisture over eastern AZ and
western NM. Ensemble means are supportive of this as well with all
clusters showing anomalously high PWATs entering much of the
northwestern half of NM through the weekend. Conceptually this
makes sense, as the jet does tend to dip farther south in
response to more ITCZ or tropical convection, but we`ll
definitely want more run-to-run continuity before getting
overzealous.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A meager crop of showers and thunderstorms continue across
northern and central NM. High resolution models suggest storms
will become more focused across northeast NM this evening before
diminishing near or shortly after 06Z. Main concern with these
storms through the evening are gusty winds between 40 and 50kt. On
Tuesday afternoon, storms should be more robust along and east of
the Central Mountain Chain, while a meager crop of storms
redevelop across the west. Across eastern NM, gusty and erratic
winds near 50kt will be the main concern. Small hail, frequent
lightning and brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out though.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure is forecast to stay strong and over NM through
Friday, keeping temperatures hot and well above normal. This has
also kept deeper subtropical moisture from intruding into the
state from the south, and we will be solely reliant on backdoor
surface fronts for any upswings in storm coverage. This will
happen each day through Thursday with storms being more plentiful
and strong to severe over eastern zones through the middle of the
week. Storms and wetting rainfall potential will tend to decrease
and remain spotty over western areas today and Tuesday, but should
see a slight increase each day Wednesday and Thursday.
Consequently, western zones will suffer from the most persistent
low humidity trends with afternoon readings commonly dipping to 12
to 20% while early morning recoveries will be toned down to 40 to
60% in many zones. Eastern areas will fare better with good to
excellent recoveries, especially Wednesday through Friday. Storms
look to decrease in coverage some Friday, potentially shifting
more into western areas of NM this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  95  64  95 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  51  91  50  91 /  10  20   5  30
Cuba............................  59  91  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
Gallup..........................  56  91  58  92 /  10  10  10  20
El Morro........................  56  87  57  87 /  20  20  10  30
Grants..........................  58  91  59  90 /  20  20  10  40
Quemado.........................  58  88  60  89 /  10  20  10  30
Magdalena.......................  64  89  64  89 /  10  10   5  20
Datil...........................  58  87  60  86 /  10  10  10  30
Reserve.........................  58  94  60  95 /  10  10   5  20
Glenwood........................  64 100  65 100 /   5  10   5  10
Chama...........................  52  84  51  83 /  20  30  10  40
Los Alamos......................  64  87  63  85 /  20  30  20  60
Pecos...........................  59  90  58  87 /  20  20  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  55  84  54  83 /  30  40  40  70
Red River.......................  44  78  45  76 /  40  50  40  70
Angel Fire......................  38  82  38  79 /  30  40  40  70
Taos............................  55  88  54  86 /  20  30  20  60
Mora............................  55  85  52  81 /  20  40  40  70
Espanola........................  60  94  61  92 /  10  20  30  50
Santa Fe........................  62  90  62  88 /  10  10  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  61  94  60  92 /  10  10  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  96  68  94 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  97  70  95 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  99  63  97 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  98  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
Belen...........................  67  99  68  98 /  10   5  10  10
Bernalillo......................  67  98  67  96 /  10  10  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  64  98  64  97 /  10  10  10  20
Corrales........................  67  98  67  97 /  10  10  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  66  98  66  97 /  10  10  10  10
Placitas........................  66  94  67  93 /  10  10  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  69  97  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  71 100  72  99 /   5   5   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  90  61  89 /  10  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  64  92  63  90 /  10  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  61  91  60  89 /  10  20  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  93  57  91 /  10  20  10  30
Clines Corners..................  61  90  59  87 /  20  20  20  60
Mountainair.....................  60  93  59  91 /  10  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  61  92  60  90 /  10  10  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  69  96  67  94 /   5  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  57  89  56  87 /   5  30  10  50
Capulin.........................  55  84  54  81 /  40  60  60  80
Raton...........................  55  89  54  86 /  30  60  60  80
Springer........................  56  91  55  87 /  30  60  50  70
Las Vegas.......................  57  89  56  84 /  20  40  40  70
Clayton.........................  65  93  62  88 /  40  50  70  40
Roy.............................  61  91  59  86 /  30  50  60  70
Conchas.........................  67  98  65  94 /  20  30  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  66  96  64  92 /  20  20  40  40
Tucumcari.......................  68  99  65  93 /  20  20  60  30
Clovis..........................  69  99  67  94 /  10  20  30  30
Portales........................  70 101  67  97 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  69 100  67  95 /  20  20  30  20
Roswell.........................  71 104  71 100 /   0  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  67  98  65  94 /   5  10  10  20
Elk.............................  65  94  63  91 /   5  10   0  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...34