195
FXUS65 KABQ 181150
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- After a downtick in storm coverage today, the risk of lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall will increase
  again Thursday through Saturday.

- Some storms may turn severe over northeast areas Wednesday, and
  to a lesser extent Thursday, with large hail and damaging winds
  being the main threats.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air
  quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- Temperatures will trend hotter this week. Major heat risk is
  forecast for some lower elevation locations today through
  Friday, then over central and eastern areas this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 112 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

In the wake of an easterly wave that passed westward to the south
of NM on Monday, drier air will filter over the forecast area
today with a downtick in thunderstorm coverage. Isolated virga
showers and thunderstorms with light rain showers will drift
slowly west and southwestward off the high terrain this afternoon,
except for widely scattered cells over the southwest mountains. A
few cells may linger into the early evening over the southwest
mountains. A few of the stronger cells should be capable of
producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Early Wednesday, a moist backdoor front will move southwestward
through the eastern plains and bank up against the east slopes of
the central mountain chain. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will
clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft, invigorating
thunderstorm activity. Bulk shear around 25-40 KT and CAPE around
1600-3400 J/KG should enable some severe storms to develop along
and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Wednesday afternoon
and early evening. Further, NBM 90th percentile QPF suggests a
few spots along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
could accumulate 2 inches of rain with a risk of localized flash
flooding. Some of the shortwave energy with the upper level trough
will linger over eastern NM Wednesday night, enabling some
showers and thunderstorms to persist over central and eastern
areas during the late night hours.

With a roughly 595 DAM mid-level high pressure system aloft
centered over and just west of the NM/AZ border today and
Wednesday, high temperatures will climb around 5-11 degrees above
1991-2020 averages. The hottest temperatures will occur on
Wednesday, when much of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley,
and eastern plains locations along and south of Highway 60 will
reach the low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Additional low level moisture is forecast to funnel into the
state from the east Wednesday night and Thursday morning, while
the high pressure system over the NM/AZ border is forecast to
shift gradually northeastward reaching near or just north of the
NM/CO border by Friday. As a result, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will return both Thursday and Friday. Shear and
instability again look supportive for a few strong to severe
storms over northeast areas on Thursday.

Saturday through Monday, the mid-level high pressure system aloft
is forecast to recenter along NM`s eastern border with TX while
building to around 598 DAM. Scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms look to favor the central mountain chain westward on
Saturday, when storm motion will shift toward the northwest and
north. Sunday and Monday, drier air is forecast to filter over
southern parts of the forecast area from the southeast, which will
probably result in a downtick in storm coverage south of I-40. The
NBM hasn`t quite caught on to this trend in the operational runs
of the deterministic global models yet.

Temperature-wise, highs in the low 100s look to return to parts of the
middle and lower Rio Grande Valley Thursday and Friday, then
mainly to the lower Rio Grande Valley Saturday through Monday.
Meanwhile, hundred degree temperatures should persist over east
central and southeast areas Thursday through Saturday, then spread
farther north on the eastern plains early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

With drier air in place, there will be a downtick in storm
coverage today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will drift
toward the southwest and west off the Jemez, southern Sangre de
Cristo, and Sacramento Mountains. Isolated to widely-scattered
activity will move toward the west and southwest over the west
central and southwest mountains as well. There will be some gusty
virga showers in the mix. A few of the stronger virga showers and
storms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic
wind gusts up to 45 KT. A few cells may persist after sunset
this evening over the southwest mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas of sub-15 percent minimum humidity will develop today over
parts of the eastern plains and across northwest NM. Humidities
will come up over eastern areas on Wednesday behind the moist
backdoor front, then remain above 15 percent there through
Thursday, while critically low minimum humidities continue in some
lower elevation locations west of the central mountain chain.
Otherwise, high temperatures should continue to climb around 4 to
11 degrees above 30 year averages daily for the remainder of this
week and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  65  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  93  52  95  52 /   0   5   0  10
Cuba............................  91  61  93  60 /   0   5   0  10
Gallup..........................  91  61  93  60 /   5   5   5  20
El Morro........................  86  58  88  58 /  20  10  20  20
Grants..........................  90  60  93  61 /  10  10   5  20
Quemado.........................  87  60  89  60 /  20  10  10  30
Magdalena.......................  87  64  91  65 /  10   5  20  30
Datil...........................  84  59  87  60 /  20  10  30  20
Reserve.........................  91  57  94  59 /  20  10  30  20
Glenwood........................  94  64  98  64 /  20  10  50  10
Chama...........................  86  54  88  52 /   0   5  10  10
Los Alamos......................  88  64  91  63 /  20   5  20  40
Pecos...........................  89  59  91  57 /   5   5  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  87  59  89  57 /   0   5  10  40
Red River.......................  77  50  79  48 /   0   5  30  40
Angel Fire......................  82  44  84  40 /   5   0  30  40
Taos............................  91  57  93  55 /   0   5   5  30
Mora............................  86  55  87  54 /  10   5  40  40
Espanola........................  96  63  98  63 /   5   5   0  30
Santa Fe........................  90  64  93  63 /   0   5   0  30
Santa Fe Airport................  92  62  95  61 /   5   5   0  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  70 100  69 /   5  10   0  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  69  99  68 /   0   5   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  68 100  67 /   0   5   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  70  99  69 /   0   5   0  30
Belen...........................  97  66 101  66 /   0   5   0  20
Bernalillo......................  98  69 100  68 /   5   5   0  30
Bosque Farms....................  97  66 100  65 /   0   5   0  20
Corrales........................  98  70 101  69 /   5   5   0  30
Los Lunas.......................  97  67 100  67 /   0   5   0  20
Placitas........................  94  68  97  67 /   5   5   0  40
Rio Rancho......................  97  70  99  68 /   5   5   0  30
Socorro.........................  98  70 102  71 /   0   5   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  63  93  62 /  10  10   5  30
Tijeras.........................  90  65  93  64 /   5  10   5  30
Edgewood........................  92  60  95  59 /  10  10  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  58  96  57 /   5  10  10  30
Clines Corners..................  88  61  91  59 /   5  10  10  40
Mountainair.....................  90  62  94  60 /   5  10  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  88  61  92  60 /   5  10  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  90  66  94  68 /  10   5   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  84  60  87  62 /  20   5  20  20
Capulin.........................  88  58  85  55 /   0   5  70  60
Raton...........................  92  58  90  55 /   0   5  60  50
Springer........................  95  58  92  55 /   0   5  30  50
Las Vegas.......................  90  58  90  56 /  10   5  40  50
Clayton.........................  97  65  91  62 /   0   5  10  40
Roy.............................  93  61  91  60 /   0   5  30  50
Conchas......................... 100  70  98  66 /   5   5  10  50
Santa Rosa......................  95  66  95  64 /   0  10   5  50
Tucumcari.......................  98  71  98  66 /   0   0   0  30
Clovis..........................  98  69 101  67 /   0   0   0  30
Portales........................  99  70 102  67 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Sumner.....................  97  68 100  67 /   0   0   0  30
Roswell.........................  99  70 102  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  95  65  97  66 /   5   0   0  10
Elk.............................  92  61  95  62 /   5   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44